Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 12 June 2026
The spot price sits at $71.69/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, well below the overnight peak of $89.75/MWh recorded around 07:30 AEST and a significant recovery from the extended negative pricing that dominated the midday window — prices printed at -$15.00/MWh across more than two hours between roughly 23:20 and 02:25 AEST, with demand troughing near 871 MW during that period. Total demand currently sits at 910 MW, consistent with a quiet Saturday morning profile. The 24-hour range has been wide: from -$15.00/MWh to an intraday spike of $149.42/MWh at 18:20 AEST, the latter likely reflecting a brief interconnector or dispatch constraint rather than sustained stress.
Generation is entirely hydro and wind. Hydro is contributing 594.77 MW and wind 389.48 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100%, a position that has held consistently across every recorded interval in the past 24 hours. Weather conditions support continued wind output today — cloud cover is at 98% with wind potential at 8.4, though the daily outlook for 13 June shows average wind potential easing to 6.3 and near-zero solar potential under 90% average cloud cover. The temperature of 14.4°C and heating demand index of 3.6 point to moderate residential heating load through the day without driving any sharp demand ramp.
Predispatch forecasts show prices dipping to $62.93/MWh at 07:00 AEST before recovering into a $75–$78/MWh band from roughly 08:00 through to 13:00 AEST. Prices are then forecast to ease back toward $70/MWh across the mid-morning and remain in a $69–$70/MWh range through to mid-afternoon, before stepping down to $60.10/MWh from approximately 00:30 AEST Sunday and holding there through to at least 04:00 AEST. The $60.10/MWh floor across that extended window likely reflects anticipated surplus generation conditions similar to today's midday negative-price episode. Flexible load operators and battery schedulers should note the optimal windows sit between 00:30 and 04:00 AEST Sunday at $60.10/MWh.
On market notices, three intervals on 13 June — 02:40, 02:50, 03:00, and 03:05 AEST — are subject to active AEMO review under clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs, with 02:40 already confirmed unchanged. The 03:00 and 03:05 intervals remain under review and could see price revision; traders with exposure to those intervals should monitor confirmation notices. No TAS1-specific reserve or interconnector notices are active, though the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer outage notice affecting the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector (Basslink) remains on the active notice register from 10 June — any constraint tightening on that link would directly affect Tasmania's export capacity to Victoria and should be tracked through the NOS.