Regional Outlook — SA1: Friday 12 June 2026
The SA1 spot price sits at -$3.13/MWh at 06:00 AEST with total demand at 1,269 MW — a light Saturday load. Negative pricing has dominated virtually the entire overnight period, with intervals dropping as deep as -$21.68/MWh during the 17:10–17:30 AEST window and a sustained run of -$20/MWh prices through the 17:00–19:00 AEST morning block. The 24-hour average price across the history dataset sits firmly in negative territory, driven by persistent wind oversupply against subdued weekend demand. The generation mix at the latest interval shows wind at 1,110 MW, gas CCGT at 41 MW, battery (net) at 2.87 MW, and gas OCGT at a negligible 0.11 MW. Solar is contributing 0 MW, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 96.44% and carbon intensity is 0.0175 tCO2/MWh — well within the sub-0.02 tCO2/MWh band that has held for most of the past 24 hours, dipping as low as 0.0099 tCO2/MWh during earlier high-wind intervals.
The predispatch outlook signals an abrupt and sustained price reversal as today progresses. Prices are forecast to remain negative through approximately 07:30 AEST (-$5.14/MWh at 07:00, -$11.60/MWh at 07:30), before flipping sharply positive from 08:00 AEST onward. The $50/MWh threshold is breached at 08:00 AEST, with prices climbing to $98–$101/MWh across the 08:30–17:00 AEST window. The peak forecast interval sits at 08:30 AEST at $101.02/MWh. This two-regime structure — deeply negative overnight into a sustained positive plateau through daylight hours — reflects the typical SA Saturday pattern of high overnight wind output followed by a thermal and interconnector-driven day price once wind eases. Today's wind potential is forecast at just 3.1 on average versus the 8.8 recorded overnight, and cloud cover of 66% will suppress solar contribution. Demand will lift slightly through morning heating loads (heating demand index 2.9, maximum temperature forecast of only 15.5°C).
Several active market notices are relevant. AEMO has three intervals on 13 June (02:40, 02:50, 03:00, and 03:05 AEST equivalents) currently subject to Manifestly Incorrect Inputs review under NER clause 3.9.2B — the 02:40 interval has since been confirmed with prices unchanged, while the 03:00 and 03:05 intervals remain under review. Traders should note that predispatch prices in the early-morning positive band may be subject to revision pending those outcomes. Separately, a Forecast LOR1 notice (MN 144233) for the SA region on 17 June remains active, covering 08:00–09:30 AEST and 16:30–22:30 AEST with reserve margins below the 320 MW requirement — relevant for forward positions heading into next Wednesday.
Grid stress is scored at 77.7 out of 100, reflecting the tight reserve picture and the sharp in