NEM Overview: Friday 12 June 2026

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 47.7% this interval, driven primarily by a strong wind event across Victoria and South Australia. Victorian wind is producing 2,941 MW against a regional demand of 4,458 MW, which explains the -$2.99/MWh spot price in VIC1 — generation is outpacing local consumption and surplus is flowing north across VIC1-NSW1 at 922 MW, a binding export at the interconnector's current limit. SA1 is at -$3.13/MWh with wind contributing 1,110 MW against demand of only 1,269 MW and a renewable penetration of 96.4%; the Heywood interconnector (V-SA) is carrying 249 MW from VIC into SA, which is notable given SA is itself near-saturated with wind. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector binding at 922 MW is the key constraint to watch today — any further wind uplift in Victoria has nowhere additional to go without congestion relief.

Queensland and NSW are running at materially higher prices — $53.75/MWh and $53.73/MWh respectively — reflecting their heavier reliance on thermal plant at this hour. QLD1 demand of 5,940 MW is being met predominantly by 4,179 MW of black coal and 284 MW of gas OCGT, with wind contributing 1,235 MW (24.7% renewable penetration). NSW1 mirrors this: 4,308 MW of black coal underpins 7,115 MW of demand, with wind at 1,145 MW the largest variable contributor (30.7% renewable penetration). Tasmania sits at the highest NEM price at $71.69/MWh with 910 MW of demand being met by 595 MW of hydro and 389 MW of wind (100% renewable); Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is exporting 65 MW to Victoria at its current export binding limit, which together with overnight winter pricing is supporting the Tasmanian premium.

The price spread between VIC1 (-$2.99/MWh) and NSW1 ($53.73/MWh) — a differential of roughly $57/MWh — is the standout commercial condition today. This spread reflects both the wind-driven oversupply south of the binding VIC1-NSW1 interconnector and the thermal-dominated dispatch north of it. The N-Q-MNSP1 (Murraylink equivalent: DirectLink) is at zero flow, and V-S-MNSP1 is also at zero with both import and export limits at zero — indicating that interconnector is unavailable, consistent with ongoing network outage activity flagged in earlier constraint notices affecting the Kerang–Koorangie line in Victoria.

Two active market notices are worth monitoring. The 03:05 AEST interval price for today remains subject to AEMO review under clause 3.9.2B (manifestly incorrect inputs), covering intervals 02:40 through 03:05 — traders with overnight positions in those intervals should treat those prices as provisional until confirmation. Additionally, AEMO has an active LOR1 forecast for SA on 17 June, across the 08:00–09:30 and 16:30–22:30 windows — reserve margins are forecast below requirements by 19–21 MW in each period. That notice was issued 10 June and has not been cancelled, so SA capacity planning for next Wednesday warrants attention. The