NEM Overview: Friday 24 July 2026

Spot prices show a wide regional spread this morning, with VIC1 sitting at just $8.94/MWh against SA1 at $78.44/MWh and WA1 at $95.75/MWh — an $87/MWh gap between the cheapest and most expensive regions. NSW1 ($64.89/MWh) and QLD1 ($61.02/MWh) sit in between, while TAS1 is soft at $31.33/MWh. The V-SA interconnector is binding at 540 MW export from VIC into SA, which is helping cap SA prices below where they'd otherwise sit given the region's own thin generation stack. NSW1 carries the highest demand at 8,516 MW, followed by QLD1 at 6,132 MW and VIC1 at 5,160 MW.

Renewable penetration across the NEM sits at 47%, though the mix varies sharply by region. TAS1 is running at 91.98% renewable with hydro contributing 940 MW and wind 481 MW, keeping its carbon intensity down at 0.052 tCO2/MWh. SA1 follows at 65.94% renewable, wind-heavy at 592 MW alongside gas OCGT and CCGT covering the balance, with intensity at 0.193 tCO2/MWh. VIC1 sits at 43.01% renewable with wind at 2,562 MW offsetting 3,410 MW of brown coal generation, giving an intensity of 0.695 tCO2/MWh. NSW1 (24.92% renewable, 0.659 tCO2/MWh) and QLD1 (17.27% renewable, 0.724 tCO2/MWh) remain more thermal-dominated this morning, with black coal at 5,819 MW and 5,320 MW respectively and minimal solar output given the early hour and clear skies.

Grid stress reads 58.8 and market conditions 49.1 on today's composite scores, reflecting the SA reserve situation more than current tightness — AEMO has already cancelled the forecast LOR2 condition for SA on 31 July, though a residual LOR1 forecast remains for 0330–0400 hrs that day. No active interventions or directions are in force in the NEM currently. TAS1 continues to see intermittent reclassification of the Farrell–Reece and Gordon–Chapel St 220kV lines as credible contingencies due to recurring lightning activity, which may affect Basslink-linked flows if con