Regional Outlook — VIC1: Thursday 11 June 2026

The spot price in Victoria sits at $0/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, capping a sustained negative or near-zero pricing run that has held continuously since approximately 00:45 AEST (15:45 UTC). This follows a clear intraday arc: prices opened the period around $128–$207/MWh during the overnight peak (06:25–08:25 AEST the previous evening), eased through the $80–$115/MWh range across the early morning, softened further into the $50–$75/MWh band through the midday window, then collapsed below $20/MWh from 22:30 AEST onward before settling at or below zero. The 24-hour volume-weighted average across the price history sits in the vicinity of $55–$65/MWh, making the current zero price a significant discount to that baseline. Total demand currently sits at 5,567 MW, well below the overnight peak of ~7,640 MW observed around 08:10–08:15 AEST.

The generation mix as of 06:55 AEST shows brown coal contributing 3,240 MW and wind contributing 2,955 MW, together accounting for virtually all of Victoria's ~6,244 MW of total generation. Hydro adds a modest 48 MW, battery dispatch sits at 0.3 MW, and both gas (OCGT and CCGT) and solar are at zero output. Wind is providing 47% of the generation stack by volume, with renewables collectively at 48.1% penetration — the highest point in the carbon history dataset, which opened the period at just 14.3% renewable penetration overnight. Carbon intensity currently sits at 0.6331 tCO2/MWh, down sharply from the 1.02–1.05 tCO2/MWh range that prevailed through the overnight and early morning hours; the trend has been consistently downward since approximately 05:30 AEST as wind output has built through the day. Solar generation is zero, consistent with the June winter profile and 54% cloud cover at 13.1°C.

Predispatch forecasts paint a clear price trajectory for the remainder of today (Friday 12 June, AEST). Prices are expected to lift from the current zero into the $32–$46/MWh range between 07:00–08:00 AEST as demand rises with the morning peak, before easing back to single digits around 08:30 AEST and returning negative from 09:00 AEST onward. Negative pricing is then forecast to persist deep into the morning and afternoon, reaching a trough of around -$12.73/MWh between 10:00–14:00 AEST (00:00–04:00 UTC+10). A brief positive window of $22–$42/MWh is forecast across the 17:00–19:00 AEST shoulder, before prices drop negative again from 20:30 AEST through to at least 04:00 AEST Saturday. The extended negative price outlook reflects strong wind output against low winter daytime demand — today's weather forecast shows average wind potential of 10.4 with 84% cloud cover and a max of 17.6°C, confirming minimal cooling demand and limited solar contribution.

Two active market notices carry direct relevance for Victorian grid conditions. Market Notice 144239 (VIC region, active) flags that the AP