Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 11 June 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $77.95/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,255 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. That current price is materially softer than the overnight peak, which saw intervals above $150/MWh and a brief spike to $200.24/MWh around 09:35 AEST yesterday evening — conditions that have since settled. The 24-hour price average across the history window tracks closer to $87–90/MWh, meaning the current dispatch price sits below that average as the grid transitions from overnight baseload running into the Friday business day.
The generation mix is dominated by hydro at 887.69 MW and wind at 171.26 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 0 MW. That puts the instantaneous renewable contribution at 100% and carbon intensity at 0 tCO2/MWh — a position Tasmania has held continuously since approximately 12:30 AEST. Earlier overnight intervals registered trace emissions in the range of 0.022–0.034 tCO2/MWh as the grid transited through higher-demand periods, but the mix has been fully renewable for several hours. Wind potential is low today at 2.2 (average wind potential drops to 1.2 across the full day outlook), so hydro is carrying the overwhelming share of supply at present.
Predispatch forecasts point to a modest near-term lift, with prices forecast to reach $87.22–$87.53/MWh by 08:00–08:30 AEST before easing back through the day. The trajectory from midday onward tracks in the $65–$71/MWh range, with the lowest forecast interval at $64.95/MWh around 04:00 AEST Saturday morning. There is no sustained price elevation expected today — the forecast curve is flat to declining across the business day and into the weekend overnight. Weather conditions are cool at 5.3°C with heating demand at 12.7 units, consistent with typical winter morning load, and today's max of 14.8°C limits cooling demand entirely.
On market notices, there are no active reserve or security notices directly affecting Tasmania. The most recent TAS1-relevant network notice involves constraint set F-I_ML_APD_LOAD on the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector (Basslink), invoked following a short-notice outage of the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer in Victoria on 10 June. That constraint remains active and warrants monitoring — any tightening of Basslink transfer limits would affect Tasmania's export capacity into Victoria during periods of surplus hydro output. The SA LOR1 forecast for 17 June, which was subsequently cancelled on 11 June, has no direct bearing on Tasmania but is a reminder of broader NEM tightness heading into next week.