Regional Outlook — SA1: Thursday 11 June 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at -$0.04/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, capping an extended run of negative and near-zero pricing that has persisted since approximately 23:15 AEST Thursday. That sustained low-price period follows a sharp evening ramp where prices traded between $100–$193/MWh from 06:30–09:00 AEST Thursday as demand climbed toward a daily peak of around 1,900 MW. The 24-hour price arc is dramatic: high-$100s through the morning peak, collapsing through midday as wind output overwhelmed demand, and remaining pinned near zero or negative ever since. Current demand sits at 1,435 MW, well below Thursday's peak.

Wind is the dominant generation source at 1,816.58 MW, with gas CCGT contributing just 40 MW and gas OCGT a negligible 0.11 MW. Battery storage is providing 1.75 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Wind alone is substantially exceeding current demand, which explains the persistent price suppression. Carbon intensity stands at 0.0106 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 97.84% — both figures have held in this range since approximately 20:30 AEST Thursday as wind has dominated the mix throughout the afternoon and overnight period.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices remaining deeply negative through the balance of the morning and into the afternoon. The trajectory shows a brief recovery to $7–$16/MWh in the 07:00–08:30 AEST window before prices slide back negative, reaching a trough around -$10.97/MWh at 13:00–13:30 AEST and -$11.81/MWh at 02:30–03:00 AEST local time. The afternoon wind potential forecast of 15.2 average for today supports this outlook, with 97% average cloud cover suppressing solar across the day. The deepest negative prices — down to -$12.30/MWh — are forecast for 04:00 AEST Saturday morning. Flexible loads and battery operators have a clear window to optimise against this extended negative price profile, with the 10:30–11:30 AEST and 21:30 AEST onwards periods offering the most sustained below-zero opportunities.

The key active notice for SA is the Forecast LOR1 condition declared for 17 June 2026 (MN 144233), covering 08:00–09:30 AEST and 16:30–22:30 AEST on that date, with minimum capacity reserve falling short of the 320 MW requirement. Note that a subsequent cancellation notice (MN 144242) was issued at 15:00 AEST Thursday — traders should verify current LOR status directly with AEMO, as the cancellation may have resolved the 17 June condition. A constraint notice (MN 144186) also remains active relating to Heywood interconnector testing between SA and Victoria, which has capacity implications for SA's interconnection with VIC. The APD A2 500/220 kV transformer outage in Victoria (MN 144236) affecting the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector also remains listed as active and warrants monitoring for any flow impacts on the SA–VIC corridor.