Regional Outlook — QLD1: Thursday 11 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $72.73/MWh against a demand of 6,759 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That's a material step down from this morning's peak, which ran through the 06:00–09:00 AEST window with sustained prices between $97–$111/MWh as demand climbed to a daily high near 7,900 MW. The day's price profile has since eased through the afternoon and early evening, with the 14:00–18:00 AEST shoulder period trading sub-$55/MWh at times — consistent with mid-afternoon demand troughs sitting around 5,600–5,700 MW. The current $72.73/MWh sits roughly 20–25% below the morning peak band, reflecting a normalising demand curve as the evening progresses.

The generation mix is anchored by black coal at 4,635 MW, accounting for approximately 70% of output. Wind is contributing 1,149 MW (around 17%), gas OCGT 680 MW (10%), hydro 136 MW (2%), with battery and solar adding a marginal 2 MW each in this evening window. Total renewable penetration sits at 19.5%, down from an overnight high near 29% when demand was lower and wind output more prominent relative to load. Carbon intensity is currently 0.685 tCO2/MWh, having tracked between 0.599 and 0.690 tCO2/MWh across the past 24 hours — generally lower overnight when wind penetration was higher and thermal dispatch eased.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding in the $74–$79/MWh range through 08:00–09:00 AEST before dropping sharply into the overnight trough. From 10:30 AEST (00:30 UTC) the forecast slides to $37.79–$40/MWh, bottoming at $23.44/MWh around 14:30 AEST — the lowest point in the predispatch curve and consistent with the load windows flagging an excellent shifting opportunity. The morning peak ramp resumes from 16:00 AEST (06:00 UTC) with prices forecast to return to $79–$98/MWh through the 18:00–20:30 AEST window, mirroring today's pattern.

One active market notice warrants attention for QLD: AEMO invoked automated constraint set CA_BRIS_593C7214 at 18:30 AEST on 11 June to maintain power system security in the Queensland region, binding on the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector (Queensland–New South Wales Directlink equivalent). This constraint remains active until further notice and may limit northward or southward transfer capability on that interconnector, with potential knock-on effects on QLD–NSW price separation. Traders with exposure to the QLD–NSW spread or relying on cross-border arbitrage should monitor AEMO's Network Outage Scheduler for the resolution timeline. No reserve notices are currently active for Queensland directly; the earlier SA LOR1 for 17 June has been cancelled.