NEM Overview: Thursday 11 June 2026

Spot prices are calm across most of the NEM at the 06:25 AEST interval, with NSW at $80/MWh, QLD at $74.84/MWh, and TAS at $78/MWh. VIC and SA are both printing $0/MWh — a direct consequence of Victoria's 2,955 MW of wind generation running hard against 3,240 MW of brown coal baseload, with the surplus pushing 949 MW across the VIC–NSW interconnector (that link is binding at its export limit) and 585 MW west-to-east through the Heywood interconnector into SA. The NSW–QLD interconnector is also binding, with 468 MW flowing north into QLD. WA's wholesale market sits at $106.07/MWh on demand data from 06:20 AEST. Grid stress scores 62.6/100, reflecting the binding interconnector conditions rather than any demand emergency.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 36%. The regional picture varies considerably: SA is at 97.84% renewable (1,817 MW wind dominating a 1,426 MW demand region, with the excess absorbed via Heywood), TAS is at 100% on 888 MW hydro and 171 MW wind, VIC is at 48.11% on the strength of that wind output, while NSW is at 14.05% (308 MW wind, 113 MW solar, 452 MW hydro against 5,092 MW black coal) and QLD at 19.5% (1,149 MW wind, 136 MW hydro against 4,635 MW black coal). Carbon intensity reflects these mixes: SA at 0.011 tCO2/MWh, TAS at zero, VIC at 0.633 tCO2/MWh, QLD at 0.685 tCO2/MWh, and NSW at 0.747 tCO2/MWh.

The most relevant active market notice is the inter-regional transfer constraint on T-V-MNSP1 (Basslink), where an outage of the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer in VIC invoked constraint set F-I_ML_APD_LOAD on 10 June — Basslink is currently flowing 221 MW from TAS to VIC against a tighter-than-normal limit. The Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV line unplanned outage from 9 June also remains active, constraining multiple VIC interconnectors via set V-KGKO. Separately, a QLD automated constraint (CA_BRIS_593C7214) on the N-Q-MNSP1 Terranora link remains in force from yesterday morning, limiting that interconnector to a modest -25 MW southward flow.

Looking ahead through today, solar generation will remain negligible across all regions until well after sunrise given June day length — the morning demand ramp will rely on thermal and hydro. VIC wind conditions are forecast to stay strong today (avg wind potential 10.4), which will likely keep Victorian prices suppressed and maintain export pressure on the VIC–NSW and VIC–SA interconnectors. SA's wind potential averages 15.2 for the day under near-total cloud cover, supporting continued high renewable penetration there. The previously forecast SA LOR1 for 17 June has been cancelled as of yesterday, reducing near-term reserve concern in