Commodity Demand — VIC1: Thursday 11 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $0/MWh with demand at 5,567 MW at 06:25 AEST — a level that reflects the post-overnight trough as Friday morning load begins to build. The price-demand relationship across the past 18 hours has been stark: when demand peaked at 7,644 MW around 08:10–08:15 AEST last night (22:10–22:15 UTC), prices held in the $140–$207/MWh range, then tracked demand steadily downward through the overnight trough. The most dramatic decoupling came from roughly 00:45–03:00 AEST (14:45–17:00 UTC), when demand fell below 5,300 MW and prices collapsed into negative territory, bottoming at -$2.00/MWh — generation supply exceeding net demand at that point in the dispatch stack, with wind at 2,955 MW and brown coal at 3,240 MW together representing total committed output well above cleared demand.

Demand is now on its morning ramp, having lifted from a low of around 4,505 MW at approximately 03:25 AEST. The sensitivity of prices to this ramp is clear in the data: even at the current 5,567 MW level, prices remain near zero, indicating spare capacity is still sufficient to absorb the build. The grid stress score of 62.6 and the active constraint notice on the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer (invoked 10 June, limiting flows on the T-V-MNSP1 Vic–Tasmania interconnector) are worth monitoring as the morning peak approaches — any tightening of interconnector headroom reduces the cushion available to suppress prices under higher demand.

The forecast price trajectory for today points to prices recovering into the $28–$46/MWh range through the 07:00–08:30 AEST window as the Friday morning commercial load peak hits, before retreating sharply from midday. Forecasts then show sustained negative pricing — reaching -$12.10/MWh — through the 12:00–17:00 AEST solar and wind-flush period, consistent with today's weather outlook of 84% cloud cover but an average wind potential of 10.4 (significantly higher than the 3.1 recorded at present). Friday's reduced commercial activity relative to a workday midweek means demand at the business-hours peak is likely to settle 3–5% below a comparable Tuesday or Wednesday profile, which compresses the price uplift window further. Flexible load operators have a clear optimal window between approximately 09:00 AEST tonight and 06:30 AEST tomorrow morning, where forecast prices range from -$3.49 to -$12.10/MWh across nearly every half-hour.