Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 20 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $108.51/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 6,594 MW and climbing sharply — up from 6,048 MW just 25 minutes earlier, a 546 MW jump that has pushed prices up from $110.40/MWh in a tight, volatile band through the interval. This is the morning demand ramp, and the data shows clear price sensitivity: every 100-200 MW step in demand over the past hour has corresponded with $5-15/MWh price movements, confirming VIC1 is operating near the steep part of its supply curve this morning.
The overnight trough bottomed near 5,270 MW around 16:00-17:00 AEST (yesterday's low-demand window), with prices compressing to the $75-85/MWh range. Demand then troughed again more shallowly in the afternoon before beginning tonight's evening ramp, which is the pattern repeating now into this morning's climb. Forecast data points to a further price escalation through the evening peak, with the 22:00-22:30 AEST window showing forecast RRP climbing to $135.68/MWh and $170.11/MWh respectively — the sharpest anticipated price response of the day — before easing back below $50/MWh by midnight as demand falls away.
Today's broader trajectory shows a pronounced overnight/early-morning price collapse forecast between 13:00-16:00 AEST (AEMO's next-day cycle), with forecast RRP dropping to $10.50-19.18/MWh — consistent with the load-shedding windows identified for tomorrow's low-price, low-carbon period. This reflects typical winter demand shape: low overnight troughs near 5,200-5,700 MW, a firm morning ramp pushing toward 8,000-8,300 MW by mid-morning, and the pattern repeating into evening. No demand-side constraints or reserve notices are currently active for VIC1; the interconnector and non-conformance notices in the log relate to NSW, SA, QLD and TAS1, not Victoria directly. Current generation mix confirms brown coal is carrying the bulk of load at 4,719 MW against wind at 980 MW, with renewable penetration at 22.3% and carbon intensity at 0.935 tCO2/MWh, tracking higher as demand rises and rooftop/solar output remains at zero ahead of sunrise.