Commodity Demand — TAS1: Thursday 11 June 2026

Tasmania spot price sits at $77.95/MWh with demand at 1,255 MW as of 06:30 AEST, and the two metrics are moving in lockstep through the evening ramp. Demand has climbed steadily from a session trough of around 988 MW (circa 12:30 AEST) through the afternoon, and the price response has been disciplined — spot held at $80.24/MWh across most of the business day before easing into the $71–$78/MWh range as the post-midday demand decline gave way to the evening build. The clearest price-to-demand sensitivity in today's data is the overnight period: when demand peaked above 1,450 MW between 08:00–08:30 AEST, prices were consistently in the $140–$172/MWh band, with a brief spike to $200.24/MWh at 09:35 AEST on 1,295 MW — a reminder that interconnector constraints via Basslink can detach Tasmanian prices from demand levels abruptly. The current 1,255 MW reading sits well below that overnight peak, and the $77.95/MWh price reflects the more relaxed supply position of the early evening rather than any demand pressure.

The forecast trajectory points to continued demand growth through tonight as heating load builds in 5.3°C ambient conditions with a heating demand index of 12.7. The AEMO forecast places spot at $80.22–$87.53/MWh between 07:00–08:30 AEST as demand climbs back toward the 1,300–1,400 MW range typical of winter morning peaks. That forecast then eases through the overnight trough — $69.71/MWh is the floor around 13:00–13:30 AEST — before the Friday afternoon and evening ramp pushes demand back up. Generation is currently running at 887.69 MW hydro and 171.26 MW wind, with gas OCGT at zero, consistent with the relaxed price environment; any further demand uplift tonight will test whether that mix holds without gas dispatch or increased Basslink imports.

Price sensitivity to demand in the $1,050–$1,300 MW range is relatively muted today, with the $80.24/MWh floor dominating a wide band of intervals. The step change occurs above approximately 1,380–1,400 MW, where prices historically clear in the $100–$170/MWh range based on today's overnight data — that threshold aligns with constrained hydro headroom and potential Basslink limits. With tomorrow forecast at a maximum of 14.8°C and average wind potential of only 1.2, wind output is unlikely to provide significant relief during the morning peak window. Traders should watch demand as it approaches the 1,350 MW mark through the 08:00–10:00 AEST window; that is where the $87/MWh price band transitions to materially higher clearing levels based on today's observed behaviour.