Commodity Demand — TAS1: Wednesday 22 July 2026

Tasmania demand sits at 1,205 MW as of 06:30 AEST, up from a 03:05 overnight trough of 954 MW, with the spot price at $46.09/MWh. The overnight period saw demand fall below 1,000 MW between 03:00 and 04:30, dragging price into negative territory (as low as -$9.59/MWh at 05:10) as hydro and wind output exceeded underlying load. Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced today: every ~150-200 MW swing has moved price by $50-100/MWh, evident in the run from 1,089 MW/$83 at 08:50 up to 1,306 MW/$100-115 through the 10:00-12:00 window, where TAS1 briefly touched $115.34/MWh.

The forecast trajectory points to a moderate morning peak building through the current 06:30-09:00 window as heating demand (14.6 heating-degree signal, 3.4°C current temp) drives load, with AEMO's own forward curve showing forecast RRP climbing to $69.89/MWh by 22:30 UTC (08:30 AEST) and holding near $77-79/MWh through 08:00-10:30 AEST tomorrow-equivalent hours before easing. Based on yesterday's pattern, expect demand to push toward 1,250-1,300 MW around 10:00-11:00 AEST, the likely daily peak, with prices holding in the $90-115/MWh band given tight hydro/wind balance against a cold, low-solar day (solar potential is effectively zero, wind potential just 1.5-5.8%).

Demand-side risk today is elevated by a network constraint: AEMO reclassified the Gordon-Chapel St No.1 and No.2 220kV lines as a credible contingency event from 06:07 AEST due to lightning, invoking the F-T-CSGO constraint set on the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector. This tightens transfer capacity on Basslink and increases the chance of localised price volatility if demand spikes coincide with any single-circuit outage risk. Overnight, expect demand to fall back below 1,000 MW again after 21:00 AEST, with AEMO's forecast curve showing prices collapsing toward $0-10/MWh between 02:00 and 06:00 AEST tomorrow as hydro/wind generation once again outstrips low overnight load.