Commodity Demand — SA1: Thursday 11 June 2026

South Australia's spot price sits at -$0.04/MWh with demand at 1,435 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a near-zero pricing environment that has persisted continuously since approximately 23:15 AEST last night. The price-demand relationship across today's history is instructive: when demand peaked at 1,880 MW around 08:00 AEST, prices held in the $160–$193/MWh range. As demand fell through the morning toward the 730–820 MW trough between 12:30–14:00 AEST, prices collapsed to near zero and turned negative, briefly touching -$5.15/MWh. That inverse relationship has held tightly, with wind generating 1,816 MW and carbon intensity at just 0.0106 tCO2/MWh — surplus generation relative to current demand is the dominant price signal right now.

The forecast demand trajectory shapes a clear price outlook for today. Demand is currently in the early stages of a Friday evening build, having risen from around 1,299 MW at 04:05 AEST. The forecasts show prices lifting modestly from the current negative print to a peak of $16.14/MWh at 08:00 AEST (22:00 UTC) before retreating back through zero overnight. The absence of any forecast demand figure in the AEMO dispatch data is notable — all forecast demand values return zero — so the price trajectory is carrying the signal. The forecast shows negative pricing deepening to -$10.97/MWh in the 03:00–05:30 AEST window tonight, indicating AEMO's dispatch engine anticipates wind output remaining well above demand through the overnight trough.

For the balance of today and into Saturday, the price outlook is structurally subdued. Forecasts show prices negative from 23:00 AEST through to 13:00 AEST Saturday, with the deepest negative prints of -$11.66 to -$12.30/MWh concentrated in the 02:00–04:00 AEST and 22:00–24:00 AEST Saturday windows. The earlier LOR1 notice for 17 June (08:00–09:30 and 16:30–22:30) has been cancelled as of 15:00 AEST yesterday, removing the near-term reserve adequacy concern. Today's mild 16.9°C with full cloud cover and a forecast maximum of 22°C suppresses both cooling and heating demand, removing the demand-side impulse that drove prices above $190/MWh at the 07:45 AEST peak earlier this week when demand hit 1,880 MW. Traders with flexible load have an extended negative-price window across the overnight period to exploit.