Commodity Demand — SA1: Friday 24 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $78.44/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,396 MW, well down from the overnight peak of 2,266 MW recorded around 18:20 AEST yesterday, when prices spiked to $142.77/MWh. This morning's demand trough reflects typical early hours consumption before the day's ramp begins, and the current price already tracks above the overnight lows of $12-30/MWh seen near 04:00-04:30 AEST when demand bottomed near 1,500 MW.
The demand-price relationship in SA is tight today: every 400-500 MW swing has moved prices by $50-90/MWh over the past 24 hours. Demand above 2,000 MW consistently pushed prices past $105/MWh, peaking at $142.77/MWh when demand hit 2,227 MW yesterday afternoon. Below 1,600 MW, prices fell into the $30-70/MWh band, with several intervals dropping under $20/MWh during the 00:25-00:30 AEST trough. Current generation mix shows wind contributing 592 MW and gas (CCGT+OCGT) supplying 312 MW combined, with the 65.94% renewable share keeping carbon intensity at 0.193 tCO2/MWh — well below the 0.36 tCO2/MWh readings seen during yesterday's midday peak when renewable penetration dropped to 36-38%.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a moderate demand build through the morning, with forecast RRP rising from $20-33/MWh in the immediate 21:00-21:30 AEST window to $78-91/MWh by 08:00-08:30 AEST as morning demand ramps. A second, lower peak is forecast near $101/MWh around 09:30 AEST, before prices ease into the $75-88/MWh range through midday and taper toward $40-50/MWh by late afternoon as demand softens. Weather data shows minimal solar potential today (avg 1.1%) under 88% cloud cover and cool 11.7-14.2°C temperatures, limiting rooftop PV offset during the day and keeping grid-supplied generation, including gas, load-following through peak periods.
On the demand-side notice front, AEMO's forecast LOR1 condition for SA (0330-0400 hrs, 31 July) signals a reserve margin of just 231 MW against a 423 MW requirement — not an immediate today