Commodity Demand — SA1: Monday 7 September 2026
South Australian demand sits at 1455 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $73.52/MWh — both tracking a steep overnight-to-morning ramp typical of the current cold snap. Demand troughed near 400-440 MW between 03:00 and 04:00 AEST when prices fell to near-zero and briefly negative (-$4.92/MWh at 04:35), reflecting minimal load and strong wind output overnight. From that trough, demand has climbed over 1000 MW in roughly three hours as the morning ramp takes hold, and price sensitivity to demand is pronounced: each ~200 MW step up in load through the 07:00-09:00 AEST window pushed prices from double digits into the $100-160/MWh band, peaking at $159.84/MWh at 08:35 AEST on demand of 1665 MW.
The demand trajectory today mirrors yesterday's pattern closely, with total demand expected to push toward 1700-1750 MW through mid-morning before easing into early afternoon — yesterday's data shows demand plateauing near 1700-1760 MW between 09:00 and 11:00 AEST, with prices holding in the $100-140/MWh range as gas (OCGT and CCGT) and battery dispatch supplement wind to meet the steeper load. This morning's cold conditions (4.5°C currently, heating demand index of 13.5) and low wind potential (0.3) reinforce this trajectory — with minimal rooftop solar offset expected given 65% average cloud cover forecast for today, the midday demand plateau is likely to sit on firmer ground than a clear-sky day would allow, keeping prices elevated through the 08:00-12:00 AEST window.
AEMO's forecast trajectory for this evening points to renewed price strength around 22:30 AEST ($95.91/MWh forecast) before a sharp collapse overnight, with negative pricing (-$0.88/MWh) forecast from 03:30 AEST tomorrow as demand falls back toward the 400-500 MW overnight trough. This evening peak near 19:00-20:30 AEST is already visible in current data, with demand climbing back to 1455 MW and price holding near $70-80/MWh as the evening load builds ahead of the after-dark demand peak. Battery output of 306.72 MW is currently active alongside 1228 MW of wind, underpinning the renewable share at 87.86% and carbon intensity at 0.0674 tCO2/MWh — among the cleanest intervals of the day, and a factor likely to keep price volatility contained relative to the higher-emission morning ramp when gas plant (212 MW combined OCGT/CCGT) carried more of the load.
No demand-side constraints or non-conformance notices are currently active for SA1 that would materially affect today's price outlook. The most relevant SA-specific notices this week relate to voltage-driven intervention events and directions to Torrens Island (cancelled as of 06/09), plus a reclassified contingency on the Para-Templers West and Magill-Torrens Island A 275kV lines that has since been reverted — none of which bear directly on today's demand-price relationship.