Commodity Demand — SA1: Saturday 25 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $105.08/MWh at 06:30 AEST (settlement 20:30 UTC 25 July) with demand at 1,283 MW, easing from the evening peak. Overnight demand troughed near 940-990 MW between 03:20-04:45 AEST, coinciding with negative pricing down to -$11.68/MWh as low demand met continued wind output (37.8% renewable penetration, 0.3148 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity at the current interval). The demand-price relationship today is tight and directional: every ramp above ~1,700 MW has pushed RRP through $85-105/MWh, while sub-1,100 MW troughs have repeatedly driven prices negative or near zero, confirming SA's price curve remains highly elastic to demand at current generation mix (183 MW wind, 372 MW gas CCGT, 42 MW gas OCGT, 68 MW battery, zero solar pre-dawn).
The demand trajectory today shows two clear peaks. Morning demand climbed sharply from 1,132 MW at 06:10 to an overnight-period high of 1,877 MW at 08:30, pushing RRP from $27 to $88-105/MWh as gas CCGT ramped to cover the gap left by fading wind and absent solar (cloud cover 100%, solar potential 0). A secondary afternoon peak near 1,655 MW at 12:00 saw RRP spike to $105-120/MWh. AEMO's five-minute forecast curve points to a much sharper price escalation later today: forecast RRP climbs from $89 at 07:00 to $130-160/MWh through the 08:00-11:00 AEST window, with a $160.31/MWh peak forecast at 10:00 AEST — the highest print of the day — before easing to $88-92/MWh by early afternoon and settling into the $49-78/MWh band overnight.
Demand-side risk factors are limited today but flagged for later in the week. AEMO's active LOR2 notice (144610) forecasts a capacity reserve shortfall in SA from 07:30-09:00 AEST on 28 July, with only 506 MW of the required 531 MW reserve available — a signal that morning peak periods remain the region's tightest reserve window. No active constraints affect today's SA demand directly, but with wind potential near zero (0.2-0.8) through the outlook period and daytime temperatures capped at