Commodity Demand — SA1: Thursday 23 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $78.44/MWh at 06:30 AEST (settlement 20:30 UTC) with demand at 1618 MW, up from a 04:30 AEST trough near 900-950 MW where prices briefly went negative (down to -$3.91/MWh). That overnight low-demand window saw abundant wind generation (currently 462 MW) push prices to zero or below across multiple intervals between 02:00 and 05:30 AEST. The current morning ramp is well underway, with demand having climbed roughly 700 MW in two hours as the cold snap drives heating load — today's minimum sits at 8.7°C with heating demand at 8.1 and solar potential negligible at 0.9 due to 80% cloud cover.
Price sensitivity to demand in SA remains steep. Yesterday's trading pattern confirms this: demand peaked near 2222 MW at 08:50 AEST, coinciding with prices hitting $101/MWh, and the region held in the $80-107/MWh band through the entire 08:00-16:00 AEST window whenever demand stayed above 1600 MW. Every 300-400 MW swing in demand corresponds to $50-80/MWh of price movement, reflecting SA's reliance on gas peaking capacity (OCGT plus CCGT currently contributing 372 MW combined) to firm supply once wind output moderates.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a firmer day ahead. Prices are expected to climb through the morning peak, hitting $97.90-105.08/MWh across 07:00-11:30 AEST as demand builds, holding near $88-101/MWh through midday and early afternoon (11:00-15:30 AEST), before easing to $78.44/MWh by late afternoon and dropping toward $44-49/MWh by early evening (17:00-18:00 AEST). A secondary evening peak is flagged for 22:00-23:30 AEST tonight, with forecast prices spiking to $126.81/MWh — the sharpest single forecast point of the day — before demand tapers into the overnight trough.
On the demand-side risk front, AEMO issued back-to-back reserve notices this week flagging Forecast LOR2 (00:00-03:30 AEST) and LOR1 (03:30-04:00 AEST) conditions for SA on 31 July, with minimum capacity reserves projected at 159 MW against a 230 MW requir