Commodity Demand — SA1: Thursday 3 September 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $86.44/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,388 MW, easing off from a sharp evening peak that saw prices spike to $134.96/MWh at 20:00 as demand climbed toward 1,314 MW. The overnight-to-morning pattern shows textbook demand sensitivity: prices sat negative through the early hours (down to -$20/MWh around 02:00-04:00 AEST on 3 September) as demand troughed near 950-1,050 MW, then surged as demand ramped through breakfast — hitting $197.78/MWh at 09:40 when demand pushed past 1,770 MW. The relationship is clear and consistent: every 300-400 MW of demand growth through the morning ramp corresponded with prices moving from single digits into the $100-200/MWh band.
Today's demand trajectory is set to soften considerably. AEMO's forecast has prices falling to $9-10/MWh by 23:00 this evening and turning negative overnight (-$4 to -$8.60/MWh) through to around 07:00 AEST tomorrow, consistent with the low-demand overnight troughs seen in the historical pattern. Load window analysis flags five separate low-price windows between 02:30 and 07:30 AEST tomorrow, each averaging -$5 to -$8/MWh, reflecting the typical overnight demand collapse in SA when heating load drops and wind generation (currently 1,220 MW, comfortably meeting most of the region's needs) dominates supply. Forecast prices spike briefly to $196.50/MWh at 21:00 tonight before falling back to $101.02/MWh by 21:30, suggesting a short evening peak-demand price event is still ahead before the overnight decline sets in.
Generation mix at the current interval shows wind at 1,219.9 MW alongside gas CCGT (232.22 MW) and OCGT (166.42 MW), pushing renewable penetration to 75.39% and carbon intensity down to 0.137 tCO2/MWh — a marked improvement from the 40-50% renewable share and 0.3-0.48 tCO2/MWh readings seen during the midday demand peak when wind output was lower and gas plant carried more of the load. No active demand-response or load-shedding notices are in effect for SA today; the only relevant SA-specific notices relate to a now-cancelled voltage intervention event and cancelled directions to Torrens Island and Dry Creek gas units earlier this week, indicating supply-side security actions rather than demand constraints. Traders should watch the 08:00-11:00 AEST window for renewed price firmness above $150/MWh as demand historically peaks near 1,700-1,800 MW in that period, before the softer afternoon and evening trajectory reasserts itself.