Commodity Demand — SA1: Wednesday 22 July 2026
South Australian demand sits at 1,602 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $80.44/MWh — up from a $80.44/MWh base an hour earlier but well off the overnight lows. The last 24 hours illustrate how tightly SA price tracks demand: overnight troughs near 1,350-1,400 MW between 12:00-15:00 AEST produced negative pricing (down to -$5/MWh) as wind generation (742 MW currently, against just 182 MW of gas CCGT) oversupplied the low-demand system. As demand climbed through the evening peak, hitting 2,156 MW at 18:50 AEST, price responded sharply, spiking to $138/MWh at 21:05 AEST and holding above $100/MWh for nearly three hours. This demand-price elasticity is stark: roughly every 500 MW of demand swing moved price by $100-140/MWh through yesterday's cycle.
Today's forecast trajectory points to a similar but slightly firmer profile. AEMO's forward curve shows prices easing to near-zero or negative through the 12:30-16:30 window (target times 02:30-06:30 UTC = 12:30-16:30 AEST), consistent with low overnight demand and continued wind strength — the load-shifting window analysis flags $0-5/MWh pricing with zero carbon intensity across 12:30-16:30 AEST, the cheapest demand-response opportunity of the day. From there, forecast prices climb steadily into the evening: $86.50/MWh by 18:00, breaking $100/MWh by 19:30, and peaking near $130.44/MWh around 02:00-02:30 tomorrow morning UTC (i.e., early tomorrow AEST evening peak equivalent), reflecting the same evening ramp pattern seen yesterday when demand crossed 1,900-2,100 MW.
Current generation mix is renewable-heavy at 80.33% and carbon intensity is low at 0.0964 tCO2/MWh, with wind carrying the bulk of supply. This matters for today's price outlook because any drop in wind output during the evening peak — when solar has already fallen away — would force greater reliance on gas CCGT/OCGT and push prices higher than the current forecast suggests. No SA-specific demand constraints are active in market notices; the SA LOR1 forecast for 29 July has already been cancelled, and current notices relate to T