Commodity Demand — QLD1: Thursday 11 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $72.73/MWh with demand at 6,759 MW as of 06:30 AEST — well off the 06:00–08:00 AEST morning peak that pushed demand to 7,907 MW and prices into the $97–$111/MWh range. The demand-price relationship across today's history is pronounced: every sustained move above 7,500 MW correlated with prices clustering around $97–$111/MWh, while the midday solar-assisted trough below 5,800 MW drove prices into the $48–$55/MWh band through the 01:00–03:00 AEST afternoon window. The current demand level of 6,759 MW sits in a transitional zone where prices have historically been moderate, and the $72.73/MWh print reflects that positioning accurately.

The evening demand build is underway. Demand has climbed from a 5,576 MW low at 03:55 AEST back to 6,759 MW over the past three hours, consistent with post-sunset heating load onset — current temperature is 14.1°C with a heating demand index of 3.9 and 86% cloud cover eliminating any remaining solar contribution. Generation mix at the latest reading shows black coal at 4,635 MW, gas OCGT at 680 MW, wind at 1,149 MW, and hydro at 136 MW, with solar effectively zero. Carbon intensity is 0.6847 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 19.5% — consistent with the evening profile shift away from the daytime wind and residual solar contribution.

Forward price forecasts signal a clear overnight trough before Friday's morning ramp. Prices are forecast to ease through 08:30–09:00 AEST (AEST 06:30–07:00 UTC+10 equivalent) to the $53–$55/MWh range, then drop into a deep overnight trough with the standout interval at 14:30 AEST (04:30 UTC) forecast at $23.44/MWh. Prices then re-escalate sharply into the Friday morning peak, reaching $97.96/MWh by 18:00–18:30 AEST as demand rebuilds from the overnight minimum toward the working-day morning ramp. Demand-side managers and flexible load operators have a well-defined window from approximately 10:30 AEST tonight through 15:00 AEST Friday morning where prices remain sub-$55/MWh.

One active network constraint warrants attention: AEMO has invoked automated constraint set CA_BRIS_593C7214 on the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector to maintain power system security in Queensland, active from 18:30 AEST and continuing until further notice. This limits northward transfer flexibility and could influence price formation if demand builds faster than the current forecast trajectory, particularly during the 16:00–18:30 AEST Friday morning peak window when prices are already forecast above $78/MWh.