Commodity Demand — QLD1: Sunday 19 July 2026
Queensland demand sits at 6,577 MW as of 06:25 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of 4,155 MW recorded around 12:30 AEST yesterday (a demand swing of roughly 2,420 MW), with spot price at $72.32/MWh. The current price reflects a steep morning ramp: demand climbed from 5,497 MW at 05:00 to 6,577 MW in 90 minutes, and price responded in lockstep, jumping from near $0/MWh overnight to the $70-80/MWh band as generators moved up the supply curve. This demand-price relationship is highly elastic in QLD's morning shoulder — every 500 MW of demand growth over the past two hours has added roughly $15-20/MWh to the settlement price.
The forecast trajectory points to a much sharper price response ahead. AEMO's demand-linked forecast shows prices climbing from the current $72/MWh to $84.50/MWh by 07:00 AEST, then accelerating through the morning to a projected peak of $117.69/MWh at 09:00 AEST before easing slightly to $116.98/MWh at 10:00 AEST. This morning peak-pricing window (07:00-10:00 AEST) is where demand growth compounds with the existing generation mix — black coal is currently supplying 5,365 MW (the bulk of output) while wind contributes 1,354 MW and solar remains negligible at 0.12 MW given pre-dawn conditions. As demand pushes toward its daily peak, the marginal unit dispatched sets a materially higher price than off-peak periods, consistent with the historical pattern where every 1,000 MW demand step corresponds to a 15-25% price move in this region.
Beyond the morning peak, the forecast shows prices easing back to $71-78/MWh through midday and early afternoon as demand moderates, before a secondary but smaller lift toward $69/MWh in the early evening ramp (17:00-18:00 AEST). Weather data supports this trajectory — today's forecast max of 21.9°C with moderate cloud cover (48%) points to limited heating or cooling load pressure, meaning the morning peak is driven primarily by the standard business-hours demand ramp rather than temperature-driven extremes. No demand-side market notices (load shedding, reserve shortfalls, or directions) are currently active for QLD1, indicating today's price peaks are being driven by normal dem