Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 10 June 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at **$187.33/MWh** as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,198 MW and climbing through the morning peak. That print represents a sharp escalation from the $128–$146/MWh range seen in the 30 minutes prior, and is well above the overnight trough where prices traded near zero or slightly negative between 06:05–08:25 AEST. The day's price arc has been pronounced: sub-$1/MWh during the early hours, building through a sustained $110–$125/MWh band across the morning peak (17:00–21:30 AEST), then accelerating into the current interval. The 24-hour average across the history dataset sits in the $85–$95/MWh range, making the current print a meaningful premium to the day's mean.

The generation mix is dominated by brown coal, which is contributing **4,737 MW** — approximately 96% of local despatch at the most recent interval (06:25 AEST). Wind adds **65.5 MW**, hydro **49.9 MW**, and battery **27.4 MW**. Solar output is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both at 0 MW. Renewable penetration sits at just **2.93%**, a significant compression from overnight when wind conditions supported renewable shares above 50% (56% at 06:55 AEST). Carbon intensity is currently **1.1843 tCO2/MWh**, near the day's peak — the intensity trajectory has risen steadily from 0.52 tCO2/MWh in the early hours as wind output faded through the morning. Today's minimum of 8.8°C and near-zero wind potential (2.8 km/h current, wind potential rated 0) confirm wind generation will remain subdued through the day.

Predispatch forecasts point to continued elevated pricing through the next several hours before a staged retreat. The 08:30 AEST half-hour is forecast at **$233.39/MWh**, with the 09:00 AEST interval peaking at **$240/MWh** — the highest point in the forward curve. The 08:00 and 08:30 AEST half-hours also carry forecasts of $194.34/MWh and $214.49/MWh respectively, indicating AEMO's predispatch sees sustained tightness through the late morning. Prices are then forecast to ease into the $90–$130/MWh range across the midday period, before dropping sharply from 01:30 AEST (17:30 local) tomorrow to $10.50/MWh and below $9/MWh by 04:00 AEST (18:00 local tomorrow).

Two active market notices are directly relevant to Victoria. First, the **APD A2 500/220 kV Transformer** at Ararat experienced a short-notice outage at 15:15 AEST on 10 June, invoking constraint set F-I_ML_APD_LOAD with the T-V-MNSP1 Murraylink interconnector on the LHS — this constrains Victoria–SA transfer capability and remains active. Second, the **Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV Line** has been on unplanned outage since 13:25 A