Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 10 June 2026

The spot price sits at $153.51/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, representing a sharp escalation from the $80–$97/MWh band that held through most of the day. The 24-hour price profile shows two distinct phases: a stable overnight and daytime floor around $80.20/MWh, a morning peak corridor of $87–$100/MWh during the 17:00–19:00 AEST demand ramp, and an accelerating evening surge that has pushed prices through $113/MWh and now $153.51/MWh as demand climbs to 1,280 MW — the highest level in the data window. Total demand has risen nearly 270 MW from the midday trough of around 1,015 MW, consistent with winter evening heating load in Tasmania's 6°C ambient conditions.

Generation is being met by 1,448 MW of hydro, 103 MW of wind, and 57 MW of gas OCGT, totalling approximately 1,609 MW of local output. Hydro accounts for roughly 89.9% of the generation mix, wind 6.4%, and gas OCGT 3.6%. Renewable penetration sits at 96.41% and carbon intensity is 0.0234 tCO2/MWh, down from 0.0303 tCO2/MWh at 05:25 AEST as the generation mix has shifted slightly back toward hydro and wind. For context, the region ran at 0.00 tCO2/MWh — 100% renewable — across the entire period from the prior evening through to approximately 05:00 AEST before the OCGT came online to support the evening ramp.

Predispatch forecasts signal the elevated pricing is not yet finished. The 07:30 AEST half-hour is forecast at $200.24/MWh, and prices are projected to remain above $100/MWh until around 10:00 AEST before retreating to the $87.24/MWh floor through the mid-morning and midday. A second elevated episode is then forecast for the Thursday morning demand ramp: $158.51/MWh at 18:00 AEST, $176.95/MWh at 18:30, and a peak of $200.80/MWh at 19:00 AEST, before a sharp pullback to $97/MWh at 19:30. The afternoon and evening period from 22:30 AEST onward is forecast to settle back to $80.20/MWh, which represents the most favourable window for flexible or shiftable load.

The most directly relevant active market notice for Tasmania is the inter-regional transfer limit variation (MN 144236) issued at 15:17 AEST today, which records a short-notice outage of the APD A2 500/220 kV Transformer in Victoria with constraint set F-I\_ML\_APD\_LOAD invoked on the T-V-MNSP1 Basslink interconnector. This constraint is binding on Basslink's export capacity from Tasmania into Victoria and is a material factor in the current price escalation — reduced northbound transfer capability tightens Tasmania's ability to arbitrage excess generation and can reduce competitive pressure on local pricing. Traders holding Basslink congestion instruments or physical export positions should note this constraint remains active with no resolved return-to-service time published as