Regional Outlook — SA1: Wednesday 10 June 2026

The SA spot price sits at $192.90/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,477 MW. That print is elevated relative to the bulk of the overnight and mid-morning trading range, which ran predominantly between $100–$140/MWh through the 19:00–05:00 AEST window, though the region has seen repeated spikes to $198–$299/MWh during evening demand ramp periods. The 24-hour price profile tells a volatile story: near-zero and negative prices in the 06:30–07:30 AEST window gave way to a sustained $120–$140/MWh band through the business day, with recurrent excursions above $170/MWh in afternoon and evening trading. The current generation mix is gas-heavy, with GAS_CCGT contributing 492.54 MW and GAS_OCGT a further 433.23 MW — together accounting for roughly 63% of local supply. Wind is generating 252.18 MW, battery is dispatching 280.81 MW, and solar sits at zero given the overnight position. Carbon intensity currently stands at 0.3585 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 36.54%, a notable improvement from the midday trough where intensity reached as high as 0.5511 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration fell to just 4.63% — reflecting the complete absence of solar output and low wind conditions during that period.

Two active market notices carry direct SA relevance. AEMO has declared a Forecast LOR1 condition for SA on 17 June 2026, with reserve shortfalls of 21–29 MW forecast across two windows: 08:00–09:30 and 16:30–22:30 AEST. Separately, an inter-regional transfer limit variation remains active following a short-notice outage of the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer in Victoria at 15:15 AEST, invoking constraint set F-I_ML_APD_LOAD with the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector on the LHS. This constrains SA's access to Victorian imports across the Heywood interconnector and is a material factor in the elevated evening pricing. Note also that prices for the 09:35 and 09:40 intervals were subject to manifestly incorrect inputs review earlier today; both have since been confirmed unchanged.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices easing from the current level to around $132–$132/MWh by 07:00 AEST, before a secondary escalation to $182/MWh at 08:00 AEST and a peak forecast of $233/MWh at 08:30 AEST. A further spike to $265/MWh is forecast for 19:00 AEST, with prices then retreating through $198/MWh at 20:00–20:30 AEST before stepping down to the $139/MWh range from 14:00–15:30 AEST. The afternoon and early evening window — 02:00–04:30 AEST tomorrow — shows a sharp trough forecast, with prices collapsing to $9.84–$20.47/MWh between 03:00–04:00 AEST as wind output is expected to lift significantly (avg wind potential of 2.1 on the day outlook, rising to