Regional Outlook — QLD1: Wednesday 10 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at **$111.11/MWh** as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,692 MW. This represents a significant step down from the morning peak, which saw prices climb to $177.81/MWh at 17:50 AEST during the breakfast ramp before settling back through the $120–135/MWh range across the 17:00–18:00 AEST window. Overnight lows sat in the $53–67/MWh band, giving a broad 24-hour trading range of roughly $54–$178/MWh — indicative of a typical winter weekday profile with a pronounced morning peak and softer shoulder pricing through the afternoon. Prices held above $100/MWh for much of the 15:25–21:00 AEST stretch, reflecting sustained evening heating demand at 14.9°C with 100% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 3.1.

The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at **5,332 MW** (approximately 73% of dispatch), with gas OCGT contributing 735 MW (10%), wind at 880 MW (12%), hydro at 152 MW (2%), battery at 129 MW (2%), and solar at a negligible 0.07 MW given the overnight period. Renewable penetration sits at **16.06%**, a marked contraction from the overnight high of approximately 37–38% recorded around 11:00–12:00 AEST when wind output was stronger relative to reduced thermal commitment. Carbon intensity is currently **0.7153 tCO2/MWh**, up from a trough of around 0.52–0.53 tCO2/MWh seen in the early hours — the rise through the day reflects increasing thermal output to meet morning and evening demand peaks as solar potential remains near zero under full cloud cover today.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding at **$111.11/MWh** through 07:00 AEST, then lifting to **$118.83/MWh** at 07:30 AEST before easing to $104/MWh by 08:00 AEST and stepping down further to the mid-$60s through the 10:00–11:00 AEST window. The next material escalation is forecast from around 15:30–16:30 AEST, with prices returning to the $109–$131/MWh range through the morning peak corridor (15:30–16:00 AEST, equivalent to 06:30–07:00 UTC), and a forecast peak of **$144.55/MWh** at 18:30 AEST (08:30 UTC). Tomorrow afternoon and evening forecasts then retreat sharply to the $68–$84/MWh range from 21:30 AEST onward, suggesting the market anticipates a similar winter-peak shape repeating.

Two active notices warrant attention for Queensland participants. A **non-conformance** was declared on unit SWAN_E in QLD1 at 06:15–06:25 AEST today for 16 MW under constraint NC-Q_SWAN_E — a minor and brief event with no apparent lasting price impact. Separately, an **inter-regional transfer limit variation** is active on the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer in Victoria, invoking constraint set F-I_ML_APD_