NEM Overview: Wednesday 10 June 2026

Spot prices across the NEM sit in a moderate range this evening, with SA the most expensive region at $192.90/MWh, followed by VIC at $187.33/MWh, NSW at $176.80/MWh, TAS at $153.51/MWh, and QLD the cheapest interconnected region at $111.11/MWh. The $81.79/MWh spread between SA and QLD reflects active interconnector constraints — the NSW1-QLD1 link is binding at its import limit of -590 MW, the V-SA interconnector is binding at its export limit of 214.54 MW into SA, and the Murraylink (N-Q-MNSP1) is also binding. VIC is exporting 584 MW to NSW. The APD A2 500/220 kV transformer outage in Victoria, which invoked constraint set F-I_ML_APD_LOAD on the Terranora interconnector (T-V-MNSP1), remains active and is adding to the transmission picture. WA sits at $101.65/MWh on the SWIS, operating independently of these dynamics.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is 34.1% on the gridIQ score, though the regional picture varies considerably. Tasmania is the standout at 96.4% renewable, drawing on 1,448 MW of hydro and 103 MW of wind against demand of 1,280 MW, with the surplus flowing north via Basslink at 246 MW. SA sits at 36.5% renewable — 252 MW wind and 281 MW of battery discharge — but is leaning heavily on 433 MW of gas OCGT and 493 MW of gas CCGT to cover 1,477 MW of demand given constrained imports. QLD's 879 MW of wind is contributing meaningfully, but 5,332 MW of black coal and 735 MW of gas OCGT dominate that region's 6,692 MW demand. NSW renewable penetration is 20.4%, with 1,316 MW of hydro, 124 MW of wind, and 234 MW of battery discharge alongside 5,592 MW of black coal. VIC is almost entirely on 4,737 MW of brown coal with minimal renewables at 2.9% — wind output is just 66 MW and solar is zero this evening.

The most material forward notice is a Forecast LOR1 in SA on 17 June, covering 0800–0930 and 1630–2230 AEST, where available reserves are forecast to fall 19–21 MW below the 320 MW requirement. SA has had a busy fortnight on reserves — a Forecast LOR2 for 10 June was declared and subsequently cancelled after market response, and AEMO issued a direction on 31 May for a voltage issue in SA, also since cancelled. Traders with SA exposure should monitor the 17 June window closely, particularly the evening peak where a 19 MW shortfall is forecast. The Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV line outage in VIC, which invoked constraints on multiple interconnectors including V-SA and VIC1-NSW1, also remains active from 9 June and is a contributing factor to today's inter-regional spreads.

Grid stress scores 62.3/100 and price stability 63.2/100, consistent with the binding interconnector conditions and SA reserve tightness. Today's