Commodity Demand — VIC1: Wednesday 10 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $187.33/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 6,198 MW and climbing. The price trajectory through this morning tells the core story: demand was tracking in the low $10/MWh range overnight when load sat between 5,700–6,100 MW, then escalated sharply as the morning ramp gathered pace — prices broke $110/MWh once demand crossed 6,300 MW around 05:25 AEST and have continued to rise as load pushes toward 6,200 MW and beyond in this interval. The current $187.33/MWh print represents a 40%+ step-up from the $128–$131/MWh range seen just 30 minutes ago, tracking directly with each 150–200 MW increment in demand over the past hour. Today's morning peak reached 7,390 MW at roughly 17:50 AEST, where prices held in the $119–$125/MWh band — a relatively contained response at that demand level — before load eased through the afternoon and prices softened to the $85–$110/MWh range through the mid-afternoon trough around 4,800–4,900 MW.

The evening ramp is now the active price driver. Demand is rising again from the ~4,800 MW afternoon floor and the current 6,198 MW print reflects the post-sunset load build, with solar contributing zero MW and wind at just 65.5 MW. Brown coal is carrying 4,737 MW of the generation task, with hydro at 49.9 MW and batteries discharging 27.4 MW. The network is also operating under an active inter-regional constraint: the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer at Ararat went on short-notice outage at 15:15 AEST today, invoking constraint set F-I_ML_APD_LOAD on the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector. That transfer limit reduction on the Vic–Tasmania link constrains the ability to draw on Tasmanian hydro to moderate price, which is a direct contributor to the current price elevation relative to equivalent demand levels seen earlier today.

Forward forecasts show prices escalating further in the near term: $178.69/MWh at 08:00 AEST, peaking at $233.39/MWh at 08:30 AEST as demand is expected to continue building, before a secondary spike to $240/MWh is forecast around 09:00 AEST (19:00 UTC). These forecast levels align with demand approaching or exceeding the ~6,400–6,500 MW range that drove $120–$130/MWh this morning, but the active interconnector constraint means the marginal supply curve is steeper than it was during equivalent morning demand. Prices are then forecast to ease progressively through late night and into Thursday daylight hours, with the forecast dropping to $80.50/MWh by 14:00 AEST and collapsing to $8.94–$10.50/MWh in the 17:00–18:00 AEST window as solar generation re-enters the mix and demand falls to its overnight trough. Flexibility operators and demand-response participants should note the extended low-price window forecast from 15:30–18:00 AEST Thursday, with prices as low as $8.94/MWh, which stands in sharp contrast to the elevated conditions playing