Commodity Demand — SA1: Wednesday 10 June 2026
South Australia is trading at $192.9/MWh with demand at 1,477 MW as of 06:30 AEST, sitting in the post-evening-peak wind-down after demand crested near 1,970 MW during the morning peak (08:00–09:30 AEST) when prices held in the $118–$137/MWh range. The day's price-demand relationship has been notably non-linear: the morning peak at ~1,970 MW produced relatively contained pricing in the $120–$140/MWh band, while current demand 490 MW lower is printing $192.9/MWh — a function of evening supply tightness rather than volume, with battery (280.8 MW), gas OCGT (433.2 MW), gas CCGT (492.5 MW), and wind (252.2 MW) now carrying the load as solar contributes zero. Carbon intensity sits at 0.3585 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 36.5%.
The overnight demand trajectory is the key driver for the next several hours. Demand troughed near 785–938 MW in the early hours of this morning (roughly 10:30–12:30 AEST) with prices still sustaining $63–$121/MWh — an unusually elevated floor for low-demand overnight conditions that reflects persistent supply-side tightness in SA. Forecasts show prices easing from $132.55/MWh at 07:30 AEST before a notable step-up to $182–$233/MWh in the 08:00–09:00 AEST window (22:00–22:30 UTC), which aligns with a historically tight supply period for the region. Two distinct anomalies are flagged at 08:00–09:00 AEST: $227.35/MWh across consecutive half-hours, suggesting PASA is anticipating a dispatch constraint or interconnector limitation at that time.
The active LOR1 notice for 17 June (08:00–09:30 and 16:30–22:30, minimum reserve 299–301 MW against a 320 MW requirement) is a forward risk signal rather than a current constraint, but it underscores the structural tightness in SA's reserve margin heading into the back half of June. Today, the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer outage in Victoria (constraint set F-I_ML_APD_LOAD, affecting the Murraylink T-V-MNSP1 interconnector) remains active and is directly relevant to SA's import capability — any reduction in Victorian transfer capacity tightens SA's supply stack and supports the elevated price floor observed across the past 12 hours despite demand levels well below the daily peak.
Looking through to Thursday, the forecast price profile collapses sharply from the 09:00 AEST high, falling to $77–$85/MWh through the 23:00–01:00 AEST window and dropping further to $8–$20/MWh in the 02:30–04:00 AEST band — consistent with wind generation recovering as tomorrow's outlook shows average wind potential of 2.1 (compared to today's near-zero 0.2). Demand-side managers and flexible load operators have a clear arbitrage window in that afternoon AEST slot, with savings of $185–$257/MWh against current price levels. The 8.3°