Commodity Demand — QLD1: Wednesday 10 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $111.11/MWh with demand at 6,692 MW at 06:30 AEST, tracking a clear evening ramp that has lifted both demand and price steadily over the past hour. The demand-price relationship has been tight all day: the morning peak drove demand to 8,120 MW around 17:45 AEST with prices holding in the $125–$178/MWh range, then both eased through the afternoon trough to a daily low near 5,600 MW and sub-$70/MWh pricing around 02:30–03:30 AEST. The current evening ramp has demand climbing from 5,600 MW at roughly 03:00 AEST and prices responding almost interval-by-interval — demand crossed 6,500 MW at 06:20 AEST and the RRP stepped to $111.11/MWh within two intervals, confirming the market is on a steep section of the supply stack at this load level.

The forward price curve reflects the trajectory directly. AEMO forecasts prices at $118.83/MWh by 07:30 AEST as the evening load continues building, before easing to $104/MWh at 08:00 AEST and $76.63/MWh by 09:00 AEST as demand rolls off post-peak. The trough period from 10:00–13:00 AEST carries forecast prices in the $67.88–$75.00/MWh band. The morning peak window — 06:30 to 10:00 AEST — is the critical exposure period, with forecasts reaching $144.55/MWh at 08:30 AEST, the highest point in the current outlook. At 14°C with 100% cloud cover and heating demand registering 3.1, the mid-winter morning load profile is the dominant price driver today; solar potential is effectively zero this morning, offering no suppression of the demand ramp.

Overnight the price-demand correlation was notably stable, with demand oscillating between 5,974 MW and 6,590 MW from roughly 11:00–13:00 AEST and prices anchored in the $60–$67/MWh range — illustrating the flat portion of the supply stack where incremental demand draws minimal price response. The sharp inflection begins around 05:00 AEST as demand crosses roughly 6,700 MW, above which each additional 100 MW of load has been associated with $10–$20/MWh increments in the RRP. That sensitivity is evident in two brief price spikes to $177.81/MWh and $176.83/MWh at 17:50–17:55 AEST when demand touched 8,055 MW — both intervals are subject to AEMO review for manifestly incorrect inputs, though prices were subsequently confirmed unchanged.

One market notice warrants attention for demand-side context: the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer outage in Victoria invoked constraint set F-I_ML_APD_LOAD on the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector at 15:15 AEST. While the direct constraint is on Victoria, any reduction in southbound transfer capability can tighten the supply balance in Queensland by limiting export flexibility, adding a modest upward bias to Queensland prices through the evening peak relative to an unconstrained network. Demand managers and flexible load operators with exposure to the