Regional Outlook — VIC1: Tuesday 9 June 2026

The spot price in Victoria sits at **-$0.10/MWh** at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 5,306 MW — well below the morning peak seen earlier in the session when demand climbed to around 7,400 MW and prices reached $52/MWh briefly around 08:15 AEST. Negative and near-zero pricing has dominated the overnight and early-morning window, with the 24-hour period characterised by sustained sub-zero dispatch across roughly two-thirds of intervals. The current generation mix is led by wind at **3,709 MW**, brown coal at **3,219 MW**, and hydro at **42 MW**, with gas (OCGT and CCGT) and solar contributing zero at this hour. Renewable penetration sits at **53.8%** as of the latest interval, with carbon intensity at **0.5635 tCO2/MWh** — down from a session high of around 0.66 tCO2/MWh during the morning peak when thermal dispatch was elevated to meet demand above 7,000 MW.

The price outlook today is the critical watch item. Predispatch forecasts show prices remaining near zero through to approximately 13:30 AEST, before a sharp and sustained ramp begins. Prices are forecast to reach **$58/MWh by 14:30 AEST**, accelerating through the morning peak to a forecast high of **$149/MWh at 23:00 AEST** (13:00 UTC). The 07:00–09:30 AEST window — corresponding to 21:00–23:30 UTC on 10 June — shows a sustained band of $104–$136/MWh across multiple half-hour intervals. This is an atypically elevated trajectory for a mid-winter Wednesday morning peak and warrants close attention for contract settlement and load scheduling purposes. The weather outlook supports this: temperatures today top out at 16.7°C with 98% cloud cover, minimal solar potential, and wind potential moderating to an average of 5.7 — considerably weaker than the strong wind output currently on the system.

Two active network notices carry direct implications for Victoria. AEMO Market Notice 144217 (issued 13:42 AEST yesterday) reports an **unplanned outage of the Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV line**, invoking constraint set **V-KGKO** from 13:30 AEST. This constraint set binds interconnectors V-S-MNSP1, T-V-MNSP1, V-SA, and VIC1-NSW1 on the left-hand side — restricting inter-regional transfer capability across all of Victoria's major interconnectors simultaneously. This is a material constraint for today's price ramp: reduced export headroom to NSW and SA limits the ability of out-of-region capacity to moderate Victorian prices during peak demand. The notice remains active with no restoration time advised. Separately, a series of SA LOR2 reserve notices (MN 144205 through 144213) relate to tomorrow's 10 June window, with the most recent update (MN 144213) cancelling the LOR2 condition for SA — but given the Heywood and V-SA constraints currently binding in Victoria, any residual SA tightness could tighten flows through that interconnector further during today's evening ramp.

Traders and load managers should note the combination of weakening wind outlook, constrained interconnector capacity