Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 9 June 2026

The spot price sits at $79.08/MWh with total demand at 1,075 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Reviewing the 24-hour price history, the session opened in the low-$80s before spiking to an intraday peak of $139.45/MWh at 08:15 AEST during the morning demand ramp, then eased through the day as demand softened to a trough near 914 MW in the mid-afternoon. Prices have since settled into a narrow $76–$79/MWh band through the evening, tracking well below the overnight spike levels. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits approximately in the low-to-mid $80s/MWh, meaning the current price is running slightly beneath that average.

The generation mix is entirely renewable at this interval. Wind is contributing 431 MW and hydro 389 MW, together accounting for the full 820 MW of metered local generation. Gas OCGT output registers at 0 MW. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100%, a position that has been sustained without interruption across every recorded interval in the carbon history dataset — a consistent pattern maintained throughout the trading day. Current temperature sits at 9.9°C with 55% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 8.1, consistent with typical mid-winter Tasmanian overnight conditions. Wind potential is currently low at 1.6, though the outlook for 10 June shows the daily average wind potential rising to 3.3.

Predispatch forecasts signal a modest price escalation through tonight and into the Wednesday morning peak. Prices are forecast to lift from the current ~$79/MWh to $87.24/MWh by 08:30 AEST, with a notable spike to $94.70/MWh forecast at 16:00 AEST and a sharper move to $106.25/MWh at 18:30 AEST as Wednesday's morning demand ramp takes hold. A further spike to $118.97/MWh is flagged at 22:00 AEST before prices ease back toward $80–$86/MWh through the afternoon. Flexible load operators targeting sub-$82/MWh windows have a solid block of opportunity between now and 15:30 AEST tomorrow before the mid-morning price elevation takes hold.

The most operationally relevant active market notice for Tasmania is the inter-regional transfer limit variation (MN 144217) issued at 13:42 AEST, reporting an unplanned outage of the Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV line in Victoria with constraint set V-KGKO invoked. This constraint set lists the Basslink interconnector T-V-MNSP1 on the left-hand side, meaning Tasmanian export capacity to Victoria may be constrained. Traders holding mainland-linked positions or managing Basslink flows should monitor this constraint closely, particularly given the forecast price elevation in the 18:30–22:00 AEST window when cross-regional arbitrage opportunities would otherwise be material. No reserve notices or market notices are active that directly nominate TAS1 as an affected region.