Regional Outlook — SA1: Tuesday 9 June 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at -$0.09/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,498.77 MW. That negative price is consistent with the pattern seen across much of the past 24 hours, during which prices were negative for the large majority of intervals — touching as low as -$12.50/MWh overnight — before briefly spiking into positive territory during the morning ramp (peaking near $32.55/MWh around 08:05 AEST) and then returning negative through the midday and afternoon periods. The 24-hour price profile reflects sustained wind oversupply against modest winter demand, with only narrow windows of positive pricing during demand transitions. The current generation mix is dominated by wind at 1,493.25 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 83.69 MW, battery dispatch at 0.13 MW, gas OCGT at 0.11 MW, and zero solar output — consistent with overnight/early morning conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 94.69% and carbon intensity is 0.026 tCO2/MWh, up slightly from the sub-0.011 tCO2/MWh levels recorded through the overnight period as gas output ticks up during the demand ramp.

The price outlook for today is the critical story for SA traders. Predispatch forecasts show prices remaining near zero or slightly negative through 07:00 AEST, then stepping up sharply to $9.88/MWh at 07:30 AEST and $103.44/MWh by 08:30 AEST. Prices are then forecast to hold in the $88–$103/MWh range through until roughly 11:30 AEST, before climbing further — peaking at $198/MWh across the 15:30–16:00 AEST window — and sustaining elevated levels in the $138–$170/MWh range through to at least 04:00 AEST tomorrow. This sustained high-price period through the business day and evening represents a significant shift from the negative-price environment of overnight and early morning, driven by reduced wind resource and elevated winter heating demand. The weather outlook for 10 June shows a maximum of 15.9°C with low wind potential (avg 2 km/h), which aligns with the predispatch signal of wind generation falling away and dispatchable capacity pricing into higher merit order positions.

The most operationally significant active notice for SA is the STPASA Forecast LOR2 condition (Market Notices 144205 through 144213, with 144214 cancelling a subsequent update). The original LOR2 for the SA region on 10 June 2026 — covering periods between 08:00 and 12:30 AEST — flagged a forecast capacity reserve shortfall, with the minimum available reserve falling as low as 443 MW against a requirement of up to 606 MW in earlier iterations. The most recent active update (MN 144213) narrows the window to 10:30–12:30 AEST with a 530 MW requirement and 517 MW available, and AEMO is seeking a market response. The cancellation notice (MN 144214) cancelled an earlier LOR2 advice, but the underlying reserve concern for mid-morning today remains active via MN 144213. Grid engineers should note that the Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV line in Victoria (MN