Regional Outlook — QLD1: Tuesday 9 June 2026

Queensland's spot price sits at $72.50/MWh against a demand of 6,669 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That reading represents a significant step down from the morning peak, where prices held between $111.11/MWh and $131.71/MWh across the 17:00–20:00 AEST window — a sustained two-hour-plus block driven by demand climbing to a day-high of around 8,054 MW. The 24-hour price trajectory shows a clear structure: an overnight trough in the $48–$67/MWh range, a sharp morning ramp from around 15:30 AEST peaking above $130/MWh by 17:05 AEST, then a steady retreat through the mid-morning period. The current $72.50/MWh sits at the lower end of the post-peak range.

The generation mix at 06:25 AEST shows black coal supplying 4,078 MW, wind contributing 1,690 MW, gas OCGT at 663 MW, hydro at 111 MW, battery discharging 71 MW, and solar at near-zero (0.17 MW) consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Wind is the standout variable, accounting for approximately 25% of the generation stack. Total renewable penetration sits at 28.3% per the latest carbon data, up from the morning peak lows of 22–23% when coal and gas were carrying elevated load. Carbon intensity is 0.6079 tCO2/MWh, improved from a day-high of 0.668 tCO2/MWh recorded during the 19:30–20:00 AEST interval when renewables were at their lowest share. The overnight window saw intensity dip as low as 0.522 tCO2/MWh with wind penetration reaching above 39%.

Predispatch forecasts signal a second significant price ramp beginning this evening. Prices are forecast to lift from $75.75/MWh at 07:00 AEST, reaching $91.85/MWh by 15:30 AEST, $105.73/MWh by 16:00 AEST, and sustaining above $111/MWh through the 17:30–20:00 AEST window, with a notable peak forecast of $126.07/MWh at 19:00 AEST. This profile closely mirrors today's morning peak shape, suggesting similar demand-side and dispatch dynamics. Overnight, prices are expected to ease back to the $54–$67/MWh range from around 13:00 AEST onwards, offering flexibility windows for deferrable load. Weather is a relevant factor: today's outlook shows 95% cloud cover and near-zero solar potential, with only a mild wind resource (0.3 out of 1.0), keeping the generation mix coal- and gas-dependent through daylight hours.

On market notices, the active inter-regional transfer notice (MN 144217) flagging an unplanned outage of the Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV line in Victoria with constraint set V-KGKO invoked is the most operationally relevant for Queensland. The affected constraint equations include the VIC1–NSW1 interconnector on the LHS, which can flow through to Queensland's import/export balance via the NSW1–QLD1 link. Traders positioning on QLD