NEM Overview: Tuesday 9 June 2026

Spot prices across the NEM are sharply diverged this morning. Tasmania leads at $79.08/MWh, NSW sits at $71.75/MWh, and Queensland at $72.50/MWh, while Victoria and South Australia are both printing marginally negative — -$0.10/MWh and -$0.09/MWh respectively — driven by Victoria's exceptional wind output of 3,709 MW against total demand of only 5,306 MW. That surplus is flowing hard: VIC1-NSW1 is at its export limit of 972.87 MW and binding, with Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) also binding at -378.65 MW as Tasmania pushes 820 MW of combined hydro and wind into Victoria. The Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV unplanned outage (constraint set V-KGKO, active since 13:30 yesterday) is binding on multiple interconnectors including VIC1-NSW1 and V-SA, constraining the ability to fully arbitrage the Victoria-to-NSW spread and contributing to Tasmania's price premium.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is at 46.8% per the current score. SA is the standout at 94.69% renewable, running almost entirely on 1,493 MW of wind with negligible gas and a trivial battery contribution, and exporting 157 MW to Victoria via Heywood. Victoria is at 53.81% renewable on the back of that wind surge, while NSW sits at 26.92% with 5,394 MW of black coal as the dominant source alongside 1,227 MW of wind and 656 MW of hydro. Queensland is at 28.3% renewable, with 1,690 MW of wind and 663 MW of OCGT gas alongside 4,078 MW of black coal — OCGT dispatch at that level reflects Queensland managing evening demand without solar. Tasmania is 100% renewable on hydro and wind. NEM carbon intensity scores are: NSW 0.6424 tCO2/MWh, QLD 0.6079 tCO2/MWh, VIC 0.5635 tCO2/MWh, SA 0.026 tCO2/MWh, TAS 0 tCO2/MWh. Grid stress is elevated at 68.7/100.

The most consequential notice for today is South Australia's LOR2 reserve situation. Although the most recent reserve notice (MN 144217) cancels the formal LOR2 condition, the underlying forecasts across the notice chain flagged a capacity shortfall of up to 163 MW during the 08:00–11:00 AEST window this morning, with a secondary period flagged at 15:30–16:30 AEST. SA's reserve margin is thin given its near-total dependence on wind (currently generating well) and limited dispatchable capacity. Traders should watch the Heywood interconnector and SA gas plant dispatch closely through the morning peak; any wind drop in SA will tighten the region rapidly given the Kerang–Koorangie constraint is still limiting VIC-to-SA transfer headroom via the constraint set's effect on interconnector equations.

Today's weather outlook reinforces the regional divergence. Victoria has 98% cloud cover and 24 km/h winds sustaining strong wind output, and the day-ahead forecast keeps wind potential elevated — negative or near-zero Victorian prices are