NEM Overview: Monday 20 July 2026

NEM spot prices sit in a moderate winter morning band, with SA1 leading the mainland at $117.06/MWh and QLD1 the softest at $97.72/MWh — a $19/MWh spread reflecting SA's higher demand relative to available wind generation at this hour. NSW1 trades at $112.78/MWh, VIC1 at $108.51/MWh, and TAS1 at $97.54/MWh. WA1, on its separate SWIS market, is notably elevated at $159.07/MWh, well above the interconnected NEM regions. Total NEM demand is running just under 19,550 MW, with NSW1 the largest load centre at 9,414 MW.

Generation mix is coal-dominated through the overnight/early morning period: NSW1 black coal is at 6,483 MW against 1,273 MW hydro, 980 MW battery output and just 295 MW wind, with solar negligible at 20 MW given pre-dawn conditions. VIC1 brown coal sits at 4,719 MW alongside 980 MW wind. QLD1 shows 5,849 MW black coal with wind contributing 1,000 MW. SA1 is running entirely on gas (655 MW combined OCGT/CCGT) and wind (409 MW), with no coal in the region's mix. TAS1 remains hydro-dominant at 1,248 MW. NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 39.7%, though this masks wide regional variation — TAS1 renewable share is 88.6% (hydro-led, carbon intensity just 0.0743 tCO2/MWh) while QLD1 sits at 19.99% (intensity 0.6994 tCO2/MWh) and VIC1 at 22.34% (intensity 0.9352 tCO2/MWh, the highest of the mainland regions). SA1 renewable share is 38.87% with intensity of 0.3491 tCO2/MWh.

Interconnector flows show NSW1 exporting 886 MW to QLD1, VIC1 exporting 176 MW to NSW1, and VIC1 exporting 394 MW to SA1 (V-SA), none of which are currently binding. The Basslink equivalent (T-V-MNSP1) is flowing 414 MW from TAS1 into VIC1, within its 456 MW export limit. Grid stress reads 67.1 on the day's composite score, with price stability at 69.6 — cons