Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 9 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at -$0.1/MWh with demand at 5,306 MW at 06:30 AEST — the low point of the overnight trough following a peak of 7,495 MW during the evening. The sustained negative pricing through much of the past several hours reflects supply exceeding demand at this point in the daily cycle, with wind generation running at 3,709 MW against a demand base that has shed roughly 2,200 MW since the evening peak. The price-demand relationship across today's data is sharp: every move above ~7,000 MW during the morning ramp pushed prices into the $10–$52/MWh range, while the sub-5,500 MW overnight trough produced persistent negative prices as low as -$11.74/MWh.

Demand is now climbing out of its pre-dawn floor and the trajectory from here is predictable for a June weekday in Victoria. The morning ramp will push demand back through the 6,000–7,000 MW range between roughly 07:00 and 09:00 AEST, and the forecast price curve reflects exactly that: prices are expected to remain near zero through 08:00–09:30 AEST before escalating sharply. The forecast turns material at 09:30 AEST ($58/MWh) and sustains above $100/MWh from approximately 11:00 AEST through to 04:00 AEST tomorrow, peaking at $149/MWh around 18:00 AEST. This extended elevated pricing window — roughly 17 consecutive half-hours above $100/MWh — is materially wider than the typical evening peak compression seen in summer and reflects winter heating demand adding load across most of the day rather than concentrating in a narrow evening band.

Two network factors are adding complexity to the price outlook. The unplanned outage of the Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV line (constraint set V-KGKO, invoked 13:30 AEST) is currently binding on interconnectors including VIC1-NSW1 and V-SA. This limits Victoria's ability to export surplus during the low-demand overnight period and constrains import options during the afternoon peak, compressing the market's flexibility buffer precisely when the price run-up begins. Traders with exposure to the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector should note this constraint remains active with no restoration time advised.

At 14.1°C with 98% cloud cover and 24 km/h winds, there is no solar contribution and demand-side relief from rooftop PV is negligible for the remainder of the overnight and early morning periods. The heating demand signal of 3.9 on a mid-winter day is modest, but 10 June's forecast maximum of 16.7°C means demand will not reach extreme peaks — the $100+/MWh forecast is driven by constrained supply flexibility against steady elevated load rather than a heat or cold event. Flexibility buyers targeting cheap load windows should act between now and 09:30 AEST; after that point the price curve does not return below $86/MWh for the rest of the published forecast.