Commodity Demand — TAS1: Tuesday 9 June 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $79.08/MWh with demand at 1,075 MW as of 06:30 AEST, holding in the middle of its daily range. The demand profile over the past 24 hours traces a clear winter pattern: a sharp evening peak reaching 1,398 MW around 08:00 AEST, a trough of approximately 972 MW through the mid-afternoon (14:00–16:00 AEST), and a steady overnight recovery now underway. Price sensitivity to that demand swing has been notable but contained — the 08:00 AEST peak drove spot above $114–$139/MWh across several intervals, while the mid-afternoon trough kept prices anchored in the $73–$76/MWh band. The current $79.08/MWh reflects demand climbing back through the lower-mid range as evening heating loads begin building, consistent with an ambient temperature of 9.9°C and a heating demand index of 8.1.
The forward price curve signals a further step-up ahead. Forecast prices move from $78.91/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $84–$87/MWh through 08:30–09:30 AEST, with the 08:30 AEST interval forecast at $106.25/MWh — the single sharpest spike in the outlook. This aligns directly with the demand trajectory: Tasmania's morning peak typically runs 1,250–1,400 MW in winter conditions, and today's 7.1°C minimum temperature supports a repeat of that load profile. Demand is currently rising at roughly 5–10 MW per interval, and if that pace continues through the 07:00–09:00 AEST window, the market is priced to reflect tightening supply headroom on Basslink and available local dispatch.
Generation currently sits at 389 MW hydro and 431 MW wind, totalling approximately 820 MW of local dispatch against 1,076 MW of demand — implying Basslink imports are filling the balance. The active AEMO notice (MN 144217) flags an unplanned outage of the Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV line in Victoria, invoking constraint set V-KGKO with T-V-MNSP1 (Basslink) on the left-hand side. Any binding of that constraint during the morning demand ramp would reduce Basslink import capacity into Tasmania precisely when load is peaking, which is the most plausible mechanism behind the $106/MWh forecast at 08:30 AEST. Traders and load managers with flexibility should treat the 07:30–09:30 AEST window as the highest price-risk period today.