Commodity Demand — TAS1: Monday 20 July 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $97.54/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 1,201 MW and climbing through the morning ramp — up from a 04:00 AEST trough near 1,090-1,140 MW. The overnight pattern is textbook winter Tasmania: demand bottomed around 1,100-1,150 MW between 03:00-05:00 AEST as prices fell to $30-45/MWh, then began rising sharply from 05:30 AEST as prices jumped to $84-104/MWh through the 06:00-08:30 AEST window. That morning demand ramp of roughly 250-300 MW over three hours is driving a corresponding price lift of $50-60/MWh, underlining Tasmania's high price sensitivity to demand at these load levels — the region is running tight against hydro dispatch capability, with GAS_OCGT contributing 177 MW alongside 1,248 MW of hydro to meet the current 1,201 MW draw.

AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a firm evening peak: forecast RRP climbs to $121.76/MWh by 22:00 AEST and spikes to $152.66/MWh at 22:30 AEST, before easing back to $88.24/MWh by 23:30 AEST and collapsing overnight to $45.20/MWh from midnight. This evening peak-pricing pattern mirrors last night's session, where demand pushed past 1,380 MW around 22:00-22:30 AEST and prices spiked to $98.86/MWh — confirming Tasmania's evening residential and commercial load peak (typically 18:00-22:00 AEST) as the key price-risk window today. Cold conditions (8.8°C currently, heating demand index at 9.2, minimum 7.8°C forecast tonight) are reinforcing this demand profile, with heavy cloud cover (97%) suppressing what little rooftop solar Tasmania has.

For today's outlook, expect prices to track the demand curve closely: a midday lull as demand eases toward 1,000-1,050 MW (historical pattern shows prices near $65-75/MWh in the 12:00-16:00 AEST band), then a steep evening climb from 17:00 AEST as heating load returns, peaking near 22:00-22:30 AEST. Traders should note the extreme volatility in AEMO's own short-term forecast — a swing from $152.66/MWh to $45.20