Commodity Demand — QLD1: Tuesday 9 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $72.50/MWh with demand at 6,669 MW as of 06:30 AEST, well down from the day's peak of 8,054 MW reached at 18:00 AEST during the morning commercial ramp-up. The price-demand relationship across today's trading has been pronounced: as demand climbed from the overnight trough of around 5,490 MW (02:30 AEST, ~$64.50/MWh) through the morning peak, prices pushed into the $111.11–$131.71/MWh band between 17:30 and 19:00 AEST. That $111.11/MWh ceiling held with notable persistence across multiple consecutive dispatch intervals during the 7,800–8,054 MW demand range, pointing to a tight stack at those load levels. The current 6,669 MW sits on a rising trajectory — up from a post-peak trough of around 5,490 MW at 02:30 AEST — and the $72.50/MWh price reflects comfortable headroom in the supply stack at this demand level.

The overnight-to-morning demand arc is the key price driver to watch today. Forecasts point to prices lifting through the pre-dawn period, with the 15:30–16:00 AEST window (05:30–06:00 UTC) forecast at $91.85–$105.73/MWh as demand rebuilds toward the morning peak. The 17:30–20:00 AEST band (07:30–10:00 UTC) is forecast in the $111.11–$126.07/MWh range, consistent with demand returning to the 7,500–8,000 MW zone seen during today's equivalent period. The tightest forecast price point is 19:00 AEST ($126.07/MWh), suggesting the supply stack encounters material scarcity above approximately 7,600 MW. Between those peaks, overnight demand is forecast to settle in the 5,500–5,800 MW range with prices dropping to $54.51–$67.19/MWh from 08:30–11:00 AEST, offering a clear low-cost consumption window.

Weather conditions are a contributing demand factor: the current temperature of 13.6°C with 95% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 4.4 is consistent with mid-winter residential and commercial heating load. Tomorrow's outlook moderates slightly — maximum 21°C, average cloud cover 81% — which should keep the morning peak demand profile broadly similar to today's but without meaningful solar contribution to offset load (average solar potential of 1). Wind output at 1,690 MW is providing material generation volume at present (28.3% renewables), though wind potential is rated at just 0.3 today, indicating current output is near the upper end of what conditions are expected to support. Any softening in wind generation as demand rebuilds toward the morning peak would put additional upward pressure on prices relative to forecast levels.