Regional Outlook — VIC1: Monday 8 June 2026
The Victoria spot price sits at $1.15/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, representing a dramatic collapse from the morning peak where prices held in the $80–$103/MWh range between 16:45 and 19:00 AEST. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: an extended overnight trough with multiple negative and near-zero intervals from roughly 01:30–18:00 AEST, a sharp evening ramp peaking above $100/MWh at 16:45 AEST, then a rapid retreat back toward zero as demand eased. Total demand currently sits at 5,750 MW, up from the overnight low of around 3,870 MW but well below today's peak of 7,154 MW recorded at 18:00 AEST.
The generation mix as of 05:55 AEST shows brown coal at 3,248 MW and wind at 2,968 MW as the two dominant sources, with hydro contributing just 1 MW and battery storage at 14 MW net. Gas (both OCGT and CCGT) and solar are at zero output, consistent with a winter overnight profile where solar potential is nil. Renewable penetration sits at 47.88%, down slightly from the 48–49% range recorded through the 16:00–20:00 AEST window. Carbon intensity is 0.636 tCO2/MWh, a meaningful improvement from the 1.02 tCO2/MWh recorded at the start of the price history window, reflecting the sustained wind contribution through the day.
Predispatch forecasts point to a modest evening recovery in prices before another extended negative-price period. Prices are forecast to lift to $37–$50/MWh between 07:00 and 08:30 AEST, then retreat to $5/MWh by 09:00 AEST and turn negative from 10:00 AEST onwards, with the trough reaching -$6.48/MWh around 15:30–16:00 AEST. The afternoon window from 14:30–18:00 AEST is forecast to remain firmly negative, ranging between -$3 and -$6.67/MWh. This profile is consistent with strong wind generation persisting through the day against subdued Tuesday winter demand, with tomorrow's weather outlook showing average wind potential of 10.2 and only 22% cloud cover compressing daytime prices further.
The active market notices most relevant to Victoria are an inter-regional transfer notice confirming the Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line returned to service on 5 June (constraint set V-KOWE revoked), which removes a previously binding VIC–NSW transfer restriction. The SA LOR2 notices (MN 144212–144214) are also worth monitoring: while the LOR2 for 10 June has since been cancelled per MN 144214, the underlying reserve tightness in SA on Wednesday morning could drive increased VIC-to-SA flows via Heywood and influence Victorian dispatch, particularly during the 08:00–12:30 AEST window. Traders with Heywood interconnector exposure should note AEMO has been actively testing capacity limits on that link in recent days.