Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 8 June 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at **$87.22/MWh** at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at **1,213.74 MW**. Reviewing the past 24 hours of price history, the region has traded in a tight band predominantly between $71.95/MWh and $98.94/MWh. The notable intraday movements were a brief lift to $98.94/MWh around 17:30 AEST during the morning demand ramp, a midday softening into the low-to-mid $70s as demand fell below 1,000 MW through the afternoon, and a recovery back toward $87/MWh as the evening demand rebuild pushed load back above 1,200 MW. The 24-hour average sits approximately in the low-to-mid $82/MWh range, placing the current price modestly above that average as the evening peak establishes itself.
The generation mix at the current interval is **hydro 778.63 MW** and **wind 262.13 MW**, with gas OCGT at zero. Total dispatched generation is approximately **1,040.76 MW** against metered demand of 1,213.74 MW, with the balance drawn via the Basslink interconnector from Victoria. Carbon intensity is **0 tCO2/MWh** with renewable penetration at **100%** — a condition that has held continuously across every recorded interval in the dataset. Current conditions reinforce this: temperature is 6.2°C, cloud cover is just 2%, but with no solar generation at this hour, the mix remains entirely hydro and wind. Wind potential is low at 0.4 on the current reading, consistent with the 262 MW dispatch being well below installed capacity.
Predispatch forecasts signal a clear easing in price through the balance of tonight and into tomorrow. From the current $87.22/MWh, the trajectory steps down to **$80.20/MWh by 07:00 AEST**, then to **$70.00/MWh at 09:30 AEST** — the softest point in the forecast window. Prices then consolidate in the **$68.50–$77.50/MWh range** through the morning and early afternoon on 9 June, before drifting back toward $72–$76/MWh through the late afternoon and into early evening. The cheapest load windows are forecast at 09:30 AEST ($68.22/MWh) and 20:30–21:00 AEST ($68.50–$68.58/MWh). Tomorrow's outlook supports mild demand: maximum temperature forecast is 16°C with average cloud cover at 17% and average wind potential at 2.3 — conditions consistent with moderate hydro scheduling and limited incremental wind output.
No active market notices relate directly to Tasmania. The notices in the queue are all SA-focused: the most operationally significant is the **LOR2 Forecast for SA on 10 June 2026** (MN 144213, updated 08 June), flagging a reserve shortfall of 13 MW (517 MW available vs 530 MW required) from 10:30–12:30 AEST on 10 June. Note that MN 144214 has since cancelled that LOR2 condition, though earlier notices in the chain (MN 144207, 144212) remain active in the system. Tasmanian traders should monitor