Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 8 June 2026
The spot price sits at $6.99/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, a sharp contrast to the morning peak where prices sustained above $80–96/MWh between 17:00 and 19:00 AEST. The 24-hour price profile shows the classic winter pattern: sub-$15/MWh through the overnight trough (with multiple intervals printing at $0 or negative), a steep ramp through the 06:00–07:00 AEST morning peak reaching $102.56/MWh at 06:45 AEST, then a gradual descent through the day back to low single digits from around 12:00 AEST onwards. Total demand sits at 1,530 MW, consistent with a mid-evening Tuesday load level.
Wind is driving the generation mix with 1,864 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 42 MW and OCGT a negligible 0.11 MW. Battery dispatch stands at 2.14 MW and solar is at zero, consistent with post-sunset conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 97.79% and carbon intensity is 0.0108 tCO2/MWh — well below the morning peak reading of 0.1484 tCO2/MWh recorded around 09:00 AEST when gas output was higher to meet demand. The current intensity reflects strong wind output relative to demand.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices remaining low through the overnight period, with the trajectory turning negative from approximately 10:00 AEST tonight (00:00 UTC) and staying in negative territory through to at least 04:00 AEST tomorrow morning, bottoming near -$6/MWh around 15:30–18:00 AEST tomorrow. A brief positive excursion to $7–18/MWh is forecast around 08:00–10:00 AEST tomorrow before prices return negative through the afternoon. Flexible load operators have an extended window of negative prices across tomorrow's daylight and afternoon periods — the deepest forecast windows sit at -$6.32 to -$6.45/MWh between 02:00 and 04:00 AEST tomorrow.
On market notices, the most operationally significant item is the active Forecast LOR2 condition for SA on 10 June 2026. The latest update (MN 144213) narrows the window to 10:30–12:30 AEST on 10/06, with forecast reserve requirement of 530 MW against a minimum available of 517 MW — a 13 MW shortfall. AEMO is seeking a market response. Note that MN 144214 cancels a prior LOR2 for 09/06, so the 10/06 condition remains live and unresolved. A voltage-related market intervention foreseeable notice (MN 144208/144209) issued earlier today for a possible 13:00 AEST intervention was subsequently cancelled via MN 144211 — no intervention pricing applies. Grid engineers should monitor reserve adequacy closely ahead of Wednesday morning given the tight headroom flagged in the LOR2 notices.