NEM Overview: Monday 8 June 2026

Spot prices are diverging sharply across the NEM this morning. Queensland leads at $90.40/MWh with NSW close behind at $86.77/MWh, while Victoria sits at just $1.15/MWh and SA at $1.02/MWh — a spread of nearly $90/MWh between the northern and southern regions. Tasmania is at $80.20/MWh and WA at $103.55/MWh. The price divergence is being driven by a combination of generation mix and interconnector flows: Victoria is producing 2,968 MW of wind against a total demand of 5,750 MW, with the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector running at its export limit of 1,053 MW (binding). Despite that northward transfer, NSW and QLD prices remain elevated, pointing to firm winter demand — NSW sits at 8,405 MW and QLD at 6,697 MW — and limited additional transfer headroom. The V-S-MNSP1 interconnector (Murraylink) is also binding at its limit of -154 MW, constraining the ability to arbitrage the VIC-SA price gap further.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 46.1% on the gridIQ score, though the picture varies substantially by region. SA is running at 97.8% renewable penetration with 1,875 MW of wind and negligible gas dispatch, at $1.02/MWh. Victoria's wind fleet at 2,968 MW keeps that region near the floor. By contrast, NSW renewable penetration is 23.9% — wind contributing 871 MW and solar 155 MW against 5,055 MW of black coal — and QLD is at 25.7%, with 1,424 MW of wind and coal at 4,508 MW carrying the baseload. Tasmania is 100% renewable with 561 MW of hydro and 248 MW of wind. Carbon intensity reflects the mix: SA is at 0.011 tCO2/MWh, Tasmania at zero, while NSW (0.669), QLD (0.647), and VIC (0.636) are broadly comparable given their respective coal fleets. Grid stress is elevated at 68.3/100, consistent with the binding interconnectors and tight reserve margins flagged in market notices.

The key operational watch today is SA's reserve position tomorrow, 10 June. AEMO has a Forecast LOR2 active for SA between 1030–1230 AEST tomorrow, with minimum capacity reserve (517 MW) sitting below the requirement (530 MW) as of the latest update. An earlier LOR2 notice covering a broader 0800–1100 AEST window with a larger shortfall (443 MW available against 606 MW required) has since been revised but not fully resolved — traders should note the situation is still live and AEMO is seeking a market response. A separate potential voltage intervention in SA from 8 June has been cancelled. For today in SA, wind resources are strong (16.7 km/h current, wind potential forecast at 12.6 for Tuesday), which should support the region through the day, but tomorrow's morning period warrants close attention given the capacity gap.

The outlook for today points to continued price softness in VIC and SA through daylight hours as wind generation remains active and solar potential is forecast up to 14.8 in VIC and 7.1 in SA. NSW and QLD prices are likely to firm further into the evening peak as winter heating