NEM Overview: Sunday 19 July 2026

NEM spot prices are moderate across the mainland this morning, ranging from 72.32 $/MWh in QLD to 83.42 $/MWh in SA, with NSW at 81 $/MWh, VIC at 75.59 $/MWh and TAS at 69.48 $/MWh as at 06:25 AEST. WA sits well outside this band at 168.53 $/MWh, reflecting its isolated grid and separate market settings rather than any NEM interconnection issue. The mainland spread of roughly 11 $/MWh between QLD and SA is narrow and unremarkable, consistent with the current interconnector flows: NSW1-QLD1 is exporting 719 MW into QLD, VIC-SA at 503 MW, and TAS-VIC (Basslink) at 313 MW, none of which are binding.

Total demand is winter-morning moderate at 9,032 MW in NSW, 6,607 MW in VIC, 6,577 MW in QLD, 1,525 MW in SA and 1,232 MW in TAS. Generation mix is coal-heavy in the two largest regions: NSW black coal is running at 5,682 MW (against 923 MW wind, 962 MW hydro and 518 MW battery output), while VIC brown coal sits at 4,694 MW alongside 2,206 MW of wind. QLD black coal is at 5,365 MW with wind contributing 1,354 MW. SA generation is wind-and-gas dominated at 701 MW wind and 242 MW CCGT, with negligible solar given overnight conditions. TAS is running almost entirely on hydro at 1,170 MW plus 184 MW wind.

Renewable penetration varies widely by region: TAS leads at 91.6%, SA at 74.4%, VIC at 34.2%, NSW at 29.6% and QLD at 25%, giving a NEM-wide renewable penetration score of 42.7. Carbon intensity mirrors this spread, from 0.055 tCO2/MWh in TAS and 0.125 tCO2/MWh in SA up to 0.79 tCO2/MWh in VIC. Cloud cover above 84% across NSW, VIC, SA and TAS is suppressing solar output this morning (0 MW in VIC and SA, negligible in NSW), so expect renewable share to lift only modestly through the day as thin solar potential (16.5% in NSW, under