Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 8 June 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $1.15/MWh with demand at 5,750 MW at 06:25 AEST, a striking disconnect from the morning peak that saw demand reach 7,154 MW alongside prices consistently holding $80–$94/MWh between 07:00 and 09:00 AEST. That morning peak demonstrated tight price sensitivity: the step from ~5,400 MW at 06:25 AEST to above 6,000 MW by 06:30 AEST drove prices from $40/MWh to $89/MWh within minutes, and every sustained interval above 7,000 MW priced between $80 and $94/MWh. The relationship is clear — above roughly 6,800 MW, the market is drawing on higher-cost plant and prices anchor near the $80–$94/MWh band. Demand has since unwound through the afternoon, and the overnight trough of ~3,870 MW at 03:00 AEST produced near-zero and negative prices, with wind generating 2,968 MW and brown coal at 3,248 MW at the latest read.
Demand is now climbing again from its post-peak afternoon low of around 4,470 MW at 18:00 AEST toward the current 5,750 MW, tracing the typical winter evening ramp. Despite demand rising more than 1,200 MW in under two and a half hours, spot prices remain near zero — wind at 2,968 MW is covering a substantial portion of load and suppressing price. The near-term forward curve reflects this: forecasts price the 07:00 AEST slot at $37/MWh, stepping to $50/MWh at 08:00 AEST and $41/MWh at 08:30 AEST, before collapsing back to $5/MWh by 09:00 AEST. Overnight periods from 10:00 AEST Tuesday through to the early hours forecast sustained negative prices ranging from -$2 to -$7/MWh, consistent with wind output continuing to exceed low overnight demand.
The demand-price outlook for the remainder of today hinges on how quickly the evening ramp extends. If demand follows the pattern from this morning's ramp and breaches 6,500–6,800 MW — plausible given the temperature sits at 10.1°C with a heating demand index of 7.9 — prices will move sharply from current near-zero levels into the $40–$90/MWh range. Tomorrow's weather profile (max 16.5°C, average wind potential 10.2) suggests the morning peak will again be moderated by wind, consistent with the forecast showing prices topping out at $41/MWh at 08:30 AEST before retreating. Demand-side flexibility and battery dispatch have a clear arbitrage window: buy through the negative-price overnight band (forecast -$5.57/MWh at 09:00 AEST Wednesday) and position for the morning ramp premium.