Regional Outlook — VIC1: Sunday 7 June 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at $74.05/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 5,155 MW. That is a significant moderation from the morning peak, which saw prices hold above $100/MWh continuously from around 16:45 to 09:30 AEST as demand climbed to an intraday high of approximately 6,650 MW. The 24-hour average across the history window has been elevated, with prices rarely dropping below $80/MWh during daylight business hours and only retreating to the $30–50/MWh range in the small hours (roughly 11:00–14:00 AEST overnight). The current reading represents a clear post-morning-peak easing but remains above the overnight trough.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by brown coal at 4,759 MW, with wind contributing 713 MW, hydro 32 MW, and battery dispatching just under 1 MW. Gas CCGT, gas OCGT, and solar are all at zero output — solar consistent with the pre-dawn window and the overcast winter conditions (9°C, 55% cloud cover). Renewables are contributing 13.55% of generation, down from an overnight high of approximately 29–30% when demand was lower and wind output was proportionally stronger against a reduced base load. Carbon intensity sits at 1.0547 tCO2/MWh, tracking close to the daily peak level; it was as low as 0.859 tCO2/MWh around 13:00–14:00 AEST overnight when the renewable share was highest. Today's weather outlook (max 15°C, 36% average cloud cover) points to moderate heating demand through the day with limited solar contribution but slightly improved wind potential (avg 1.7) compared to the current calm.

Predispatch forecasts for the next two half-hour intervals point to prices in the mid-to-upper $70s/MWh, with the 06:30 AEST run producing a $75.88/MWh forecast for the 07:00 AEST target and earlier runs for the 07:30 AEST target clustering around $80–87/MWh. The trajectory suggests prices are likely to firm again as the morning demand ramp continues into the 07:00–09:00 AEST window, consistent with the pattern observed across the price history where demand regularly exceeded 6,200–6,600 MW and prices pushed above $94–110/MWh during that period. Load-shift windows rated "excellent" are clustered from 09:00 AEST tonight through to approximately 15:30 AEST today (UTC+11), with forecast prices ranging from negative to low single digits in the 11:00–15:30 AEST window — the optimal scheduling opportunity for flexible loads.

The most relevant active market notice for Victoria is the inter-regional transfer limit variation for the Koorangie to Wemen 220 kV line (Notice 144204), which returned to service on 5 June after a planned outage; constraint set V-KOWE has been revoked, restoring normal transfer capacity on that corridor. The SA Forecast LOR2 notice (144206, updated) covering 08:30–17:00 AEST on 10 June 2026 — with a 384 MW reserve shortfall against a 571 MW requirement — is not a direct Victoria