Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 7 June 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $87.87/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,085 MW. Reviewing the past 24 hours, prices moved through three distinct bands: a $50.20–$50.24/MWh floor through the midday period (roughly 21:00–23:00 AEST overnight), a sustained $80.20/MWh base rate through the early-morning hours, and a step-up to the current $87–$88/MWh range from around 03:30 AEST onwards. A brief spike to $128.15/MWh occurred at 09:00 AEST overnight and prices touched $99.89/MWh during the 03:35 AEST interval, indicating periodic tightness on the Basslink interconnector as mainland Victorian demand rose. The 24-hour average across visible intervals sits in the low-to-mid $80s/MWh range.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is hydro at 1,046 MW and wind at 85 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 0 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 100% and carbon intensity registers 0 tCO2/MWh for this interval — a position Tasmania has held for the overwhelming majority of the past 24 hours. The only departures from zero intensity occurred between approximately 16:25 and 23:00 AEST, when carbon intensity briefly reached a peak of 0.0334 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration dipped to a low of 94.87%, consistent with gas-fired support or interconnector imports carrying a small embedded carbon component. Current conditions show a full return to zero intensity.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour are locked in at $87.24/MWh across all forecast runs issued from 12:32 to 06:02 AEST — a highly stable signal with no divergence across runs. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at $111.85–$114.78/MWh across available runs, with earlier runs issued around 03:32–05:32 AEST producing the same elevated signal. Two runs issued around 03:31–04:02 AEST briefly printed $118.11/MWh and $115.36/MWh for that period before settling back. Traders should treat the $87/MWh → $112–$115/MWh step at 07:30 AEST as the key pricing event this morning, likely reflecting Basslink export ramp-up coinciding with mainland morning demand. Load-window modelling shows prices moderating back into the $65–$83/MWh range from 09:30 AEST onwards through the afternoon.

No active market notices directly affect the Tasmanian region. The most operationally relevant active notice for interconnected market participants is the Forecast LOR2 condition in South Australia on 10 June 2026, covering 08:30–17:00 AEST, where the minimum available reserve of 384 MW sits 187 MW below the 571 MW requirement. That SA tightness may influence Victorian dispatch and, by extension, Basslink flow economics later in the week. Weather today is clear with a maximum of 16.4°C, low wind potential (average 1.0), and moderate solar potential (11.3) — conditions