Regional Outlook — SA1: Sunday 7 June 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at **$67.35/MWh** as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,342 MW — well below the morning peak of 1,791 MW recorded around 19:30 AEST. That peak-hour period carried prices consistently in the $100–$120/MWh range, making the current price a notable step down as demand eases into the overnight window. Over the trailing 24 hours, prices were most elevated in the 07:30–09:00 AEST window (touching $257.83/MWh briefly at 08:45 AEST) before settling into a sustained $80–$120/MWh band through the business day and softening below $70/MWh through the evening. The overnight trough, visible in the load window forecasts, points to prices as low as negative territory from approximately 11:30–15:30 AEST today as wind generation holds strong against low demand.

The current generation mix is wind-dominant: wind is contributing **1,306.84 MW**, gas CCGT **119.86 MW**, battery discharge **51.43 MW**, and gas OCGT a negligible **0.11 MW**, with solar at zero given it is pre-dawn. Renewable penetration sits at **91.88%** and carbon intensity is **0.0398 tCO2/MWh** — the lowest point recorded across the full 24-hour dataset. This contrasts sharply with the morning business-hours period (07:00–11:00 AEST) when renewable penetration dipped to as low as 18% and intensity reached 0.4755 tCO2/MWh, driven by a wind lull coinciding with demand ramping. The turnaround through the afternoon and evening has been significant, with intensity falling steadily from 0.40 at 18:00 AEST to the current 0.04 tCO2/MWh.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:30–08:00 AEST half-hours (the next pricing window as the morning ramp begins) are clustering in the **$72–$86/MWh** range, with the most recent runs at 06:01 and 06:32 AEST printing $72.39 and $85.57/MWh respectively for the 07:30 target interval. This signals modest upward price pressure as demand climbs through the morning peak, though nothing in the predispatch stack currently suggests a return to the $120–$260/MWh spikes seen during yesterday's equivalent window. Today's weather outlook supports this — Adelaide sits at 11.1°C with light winds at 12.6 km/h and low cloud cover (26%), with the daily maximum forecast at 17°C. Heating demand is present but modest, and wind potential is rated 3.1 today rising to 4.6 tomorrow, suggesting wind output is unlikely to collapse as it did during this morning's SA demand peak.

The critical market notice for today is AEMO's **active Forecast LOR2 condition for SA on Wednesday 10 June 2026**, updated via Market Notice 144206. The window has been revised to 08:30–17:00 AEST on 10 June, with a forecast capacity reserve requirement of 571 MW against a minimum available of 384 MW — a 187 MW shortfall. AEMO is seeking a market response