Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 7 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $87.73/MWh at 06:30 AEST with total demand at 6,724 MW, well below the morning peak of $124.60/MWh recorded around 17:30 AEST. Tracing the overnight price path, the market dipped as low as $6.71/MWh in the early evening before recovering through the $40–$50/MWh range overnight, then surging above $100/MWh during the morning ramp from around 15:45 AEST. Prices have been easing through the mid-morning period, tracking back toward the upper $80s–low $90s range as demand pulls back from its intraday peak of approximately 7,680 MW recorded around 17:40 AEST.

The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 4,712 MW (70.0% of the 6,525 MW total dispatched generation), with wind contributing 1,214 MW (18.6%), hydro 306 MW (4.7%), gas OCGT 134 MW (2.1%), battery 159 MW (2.4%), and solar a negligible 0.14 MW — consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 25.74% with a grid carbon intensity of 0.6488 tCO2/MWh. That intensity is notably lower than the 0.7234 tCO2/MWh recorded around 01:25 AEST when wind output was lower relative to demand, and significantly below the overnight low of 0.4390 tCO2/MWh seen around 10:25 AEST when wind penetration was highest. As solar generation builds through the morning hours today, renewable penetration is expected to climb modestly, constrained by a forecast average cloud cover of 40% for 8 June with peak temperatures reaching 20.9°C — mild winter conditions that will keep heating demand moderate.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00–07:30 AEST window (21:00–21:30 UTC) are consistently pointing to $87.73–$103.83/MWh, with the most recent runs (issued from around 05:30–06:00 AEST) settling in the $87.73–$90.40/MWh band. The convergence of recent forecasts toward the upper $80s suggests limited upside from current levels in the near term, though the 07:30 AEST interval is showing $102.88–$103.83/MWh in earlier pre-dispatch runs, indicating some uncertainty around the morning demand plateau. Load-shifting opportunity windows from 09:30–10:30 AEST (00:30–02:00 UTC) show forecast prices in the $25–$40/MWh range, representing the strongest value window for flexible loads today.

Two active market notices warrant attention. AEMO has issued an updated Forecast LOR2 notice (144206) for the SA region on 10 June 2026, with a reserve shortfall of 187 MW forecast between 08:30 and 17:00 AEST on that date — this does not directly constrain Queensland dispatch but may influence interconnector flows and interstate price separation if SA tightens. Within the QLD region, non-conformance notices for unit WOOLGSF1 (144202 and 144203) relate to events on 5 June and are now resolved.